Vancouver FC 3-2 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vancouver FC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec meet at Willoughby Community Park Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vancouver FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vancouver FC have posted 5W 2D 3L at Willoughby Community Park Stadium — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Supra du Quebec's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, Supra du Quebec have posted 3W 2D 4L from 9 away outings — 1.22 PPG. Away from home they average 1.78 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 89% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Vancouver FC's favour (1.60 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Vancouver FC 1W, Supra du Quebec 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2026, ended 5–1 with Vancouver FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Supra du Quebec — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 89% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vancouver FC 47% and Supra du Quebec 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vancouver FC 42% | Supra du Quebec 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vancouver FC 2.06 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vancouver FC attack 0.992 / defence 1.021 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Vancouver FC games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Vancouver FC 58% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 18%. Fair-value odds: Vancouver FC 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Supra du Quebec 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Vancouver FC (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vancouver FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vancouver FC 50% | Supra du Quebec 89% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Willoughby Community Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vancouver FC 58% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Vancouver FC 2.06 / Supra du Quebec 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Vancouver FC attack 0.992 / def 1.021 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Vancouver FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Vancouver FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Supra du Quebec xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Vancouver FC 3 - 2 Supra du Quebec.
Where is Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at Willoughby Community Park Stadium.
What competition is Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Vancouver FC a 58% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Vancouver FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec?
Record (2 meetings): Vancouver FC 1W | Draws 1 | Supra du Quebec 0W.
What form are Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec in?
Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vancouver FC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Supra du Quebec's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Supra du Quebec's attack (0.85x) against Vancouver FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vancouver FC Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.18
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Vancouver FC xG
Total xG
3.17
1.10
Supra du Quebec xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
2%
43.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Vancouver FC and 1.10 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vancouver FC's recent record stands at 8W 3D 8L from 19 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Supra du Quebec, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 9L across 19 games — 1.16 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Vancouver FC against 1.16 for Supra du Quebec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Vancouver FC have managed 5W 2D 2L from 9 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Vancouver FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Supra du Quebec's away record stands at 3W 2D 4L across 9 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vancouver FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vancouver FC are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Supra du Quebec are on 1.42 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec in 79%.
Last 19 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vancouver FC
Blended
Supra du Quebec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec in coming into this match?
Vancouver FC have gone 8W 3D 8L in their last 19 games (1.42 PPG), while Supra du Quebec have gone 6W 4D 9L in their last 19 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vancouver FC at home or Supra du Quebec away?
Vancouver FC's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vancouver FC at home: 1.89 PPG; Supra du Quebec away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Vancouver FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vancouver FC won 1-5 on 17 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vancouver FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Supra du Quebec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Vancouver FC
1
Draws
0
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec?
From 3 meetings on record, Vancouver FC have won 2, Supra du Quebec have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Vancouver FC 3-2 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vancouver FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Supra du Quebec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Vancouver FC, 89% for Supra du Quebec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vancouver FC) and 67% (Supra du Quebec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vancouver FC home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vancouver FC play Supra du Quebec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Vancouver FC's games and 89% of Supra du Quebec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Vancouver FC's matches and 67% of Supra du Quebec's.
Do Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec tend to score early?
Vancouver FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Supra du Quebec in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Vancouver FC edge out Supra du Quebec 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vancouver FC beat Supra du Quebec 3-2 at Willoughby Community Park Stadium, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vancouver FC 2.06 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.10 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Vancouver FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Supra du Quebec outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vancouver FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vancouver FC 58% | Draw 24% | Supra du Quebec 18%, with Vancouver FC to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vancouver FC 42%, Supra du Quebec 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vancouver FC's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vancouver FC 1.42 PPG, Supra du Quebec 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vancouver FC win broke the near-deadlock. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Supra du Quebec (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.