Supra du Quebec 2-2 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Supra du Quebec at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC meet at CEPSUM Stadium in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Supra du Quebec have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at CEPSUM Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vancouver FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Supra du Quebec, 1.00 for Vancouver FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Supra du Quebec 0W, Vancouver FC 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Vancouver FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Supra du Quebec — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Vancouver FC — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Supra du Quebec 68% and Vancouver FC 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Supra du Quebec 60% | Vancouver FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Supra du Quebec 1.54 xG and Vancouver FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 0 Supra du Quebec games / 28 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Supra du Quebec 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Vancouver FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Supra du Quebec at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Supra du Quebec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Supra du Quebec 60% | Vancouver FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: CEPSUM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Supra du Quebec 1.54 / Vancouver FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Supra du Quebec (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Supra du Quebec xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Vancouver FC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at CEPSUM Stadium.
What was the final score in Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC?
Supra du Quebec 2 - 2 Vancouver FC.
Where is Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What competition is Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC part of?
Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Supra du Quebec a 38% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Supra du Quebec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC?
Record (3 meetings): Supra du Quebec 0W | Draws 1 | Vancouver FC 2W.
What form are Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC in?
Supra du Quebec (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Supra du Quebec's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (1.00x) against Supra du Quebec's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 0/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Supra du Quebec Win
38%
2.64
28%
3.59
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Supra du Quebec xG
Total xG
3.00
1.46
Vancouver FC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Supra du Quebec and 1.46 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Supra du Quebec's recent record stands at 9W 4D 12L from 25 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 10L across 25 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Supra du Quebec against 1.32 for Vancouver FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Supra du Quebec have managed 4W 2D 6L from 12 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vancouver FC's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vancouver FC's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Supra du Quebec are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.40 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Supra du Quebec
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Supra du Quebec have gone 9W 4D 12L in their last 25 games (1.24 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Supra du Quebec at home or Vancouver FC away?
Supra du Quebec's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Supra du Quebec at home: 1.17 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vancouver FC won 1-5 on 17 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Supra du Quebec have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Supra du Quebec
2
Draws
2
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Supra du Quebec have won 0, Vancouver FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Supra du Quebec 2-2 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Supra du Quebec see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Supra du Quebec 58%, Vancouver FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Supra du Quebec) and 42% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Supra du Quebec home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Supra du Quebec play Vancouver FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Supra du Quebec's recent matches and 50% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Supra du Quebec vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Supra du Quebec's recent games and 42% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Supra du Quebec have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CEPSUM Stadium, Group Stage, as Supra du Quebec and Vancouver FC drew 2-2 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Supra du Quebec 1.54 xG and Vancouver FC 1.46 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Supra du Quebec 38% | Draw 28% | Vancouver FC 34%, with Supra du Quebec to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Supra du Quebec 60%, Vancouver FC 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Supra du Quebec 1.24 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.