Pacific FC 1-1 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 48%, yet in-form Vancouver FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Group Stage sees Vancouver FC travel to Starlight Stadium to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 games at Starlight Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Vancouver FC have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Vancouver FC's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Pacific FC's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Pacific FC, 3 for Vancouver FC and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pacific FC 61% and Vancouver FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pacific FC 57% | Vancouver FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.80 xG and Vancouver FC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 0.994 / defence 1.022 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Pacific FC games / 28 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 48% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Vancouver FC 3.85. Pacific FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vancouver FC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 70% | Vancouver FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Starlight Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 48% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Pacific FC 1.80 / Vancouver FC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 0.994 / def 1.022 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Vancouver FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Starlight Stadium.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Pacific FC 1 - 1 Vancouver FC.
Where is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Starlight Stadium.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 48% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Pacific FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Record (9 meetings): Pacific FC 2W | Draws 4 | Vancouver FC 3W.
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Vancouver FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pacific FC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.78
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
3.10
1.29
Vancouver FC xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
16%
6.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
4%
23.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.5 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Pacific FC and 1.29 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC's recent record stands at 6W 15D 28L from 49 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 24L across 49 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacific FC on 0.67 PPG, Vancouver FC on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pacific FC have managed 5W 6D 14L from 25 games — 0.84 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vancouver FC's away record stands at 5W 6D 14L across 25 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Vancouver FC in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 6W 15D 28L in their last 49 games (0.67 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 13W 12D 24L in their last 49 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Pacific FC's home record (0.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 0.84 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Pacific FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pacific FC
5
Draws
3
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 2, Vancouver FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Pacific FC 1-1 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Vancouver FC?
Vancouver FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacific FC 64%, Vancouver FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Pacific FC) and 52% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC have failed to score in 28% of games; Vancouver FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Pacific FC's games and 60% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacific FC vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Pacific FC's recent games and 52% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC and Vancouver FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Starlight Stadium, Group Stage, as Pacific FC and Vancouver FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.80 xG and Vancouver FC 1.29 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Pacific FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 48% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 26%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 57%, Vancouver FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacific FC 0.67 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pacific FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.