Pacific FC 4-2 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacific FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Atlético Ottawa travel to IG Field to take on Pacific FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 July 2021, 03:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pacific FC stand at 3W 2D 2L from 7 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.57 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Pacific FC have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacific FC's home record at IG Field: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Canadian Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at IG Field.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Atlético Ottawa have recorded 2W 1D 4L from 7 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Atlético Ottawa have played only a handful of Canadian Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atlético Ottawa's away record: 2W 0D 1L from 3 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Pacific FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.57 PPG ahead (1.57 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Pacific FC in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Pacific FC 29% | Atlético Ottawa 29%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacific FC 57% | Atlético Ottawa 14%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacific FC 1.12 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacific FC attack 1.238 / defence 1.144 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.931 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 0.876 / away 0.874. Data: 7 Pacific FC games / 7 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacific FC 39% | Draw 32% | Atlético Ottawa 29%. Fair-value odds: Pacific FC 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Atlético Ottawa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacific FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pacific FC 33% | Atlético Ottawa 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: IG Field • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Jul 2021, 03:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacific FC 39% | Draw 32% | Atlético Ottawa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Pacific FC 1.12 / Atlético Ottawa 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Pacific FC attack 1.238 / def 1.144 | Atlético Ottawa attack 0.931 / def 1.036 | league avg home 0.876 / away 0.874 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Pacific FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Atlético Ottawa xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 03:00 on Thursday 22 July 2021 at IG Field.
What was the final score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Pacific FC 4 - 2 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at IG Field.
What competition is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Pacific FC a 39% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Pacific FC (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 2W-1D-4L in 7 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pacific FC's attack rating (1.24) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atlético Ottawa's attack versus Pacific FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
39%
2.56
32%
3.15
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Pacific FC xG
Total xG
2.05
0.93
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
15%
6.49
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Pacific FC and 0.93 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pacific FC come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 2D 2L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Pacific FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Pacific FC's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Pacific FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.00 PPG overall record — Atlético Ottawa travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Pacific FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 0.71 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pacific FC have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games; Atlético Ottawa in 29%.
Defensively: Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacific FC
Early Season
Atlético Ottawa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Pacific FC have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 1D 4L in their last 7 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacific FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Pacific FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacific FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Pacific FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacific FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2024, when Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pacific FC's record when hosting Atlético Ottawa specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pacific FC
2
Draws
7
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Pacific FC have won 1, Atlético Ottawa have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 3-2 Pacific FC.
Who has won more matches between Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Pacific FC 33% BTTS, Atlético Ottawa 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 67% for Pacific FC and 0% for Atlético Ottawa.
On the defensive side: Pacific FC keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa in 67%; Atlético Ottawa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacific FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacific FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Pacific FC's recent matches and 0% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacific FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Pacific FC's recent games and 0% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacific FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Pacific FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacific FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Atlético Ottawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacific FC beat Atlético Ottawa 4-2 at IG Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacific FC 1.12 xG and Atlético Ottawa 0.93 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Pacific FC beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atlético Ottawa outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacific FC attack 1.24 / defence 1.14 against Atlético Ottawa attack 0.93 / defence 1.04, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacific FC 39% | Draw 32% | Atlético Ottawa 29%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacific FC 57%, Atlético Ottawa 14%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacific FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Pacific FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.