Cavalry FC 4-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs York United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Quarter-finals. Kick-off: Sunday 26 October 2025 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at ATCO Field — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Cavalry FC, 1.30 for York United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cavalry FC lead 4W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 1–3 with York United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cavalry FC 62% and York United 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 53% | York United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.02 xG and York United 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.170 / defence 0.890 | York United attack 0.790 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.267. Data: 56 Cavalry FC games / 56 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 62% | Draw 24% | York United 14%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.61 | Draw 4.17 | York United 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (62%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | York United 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Quarter-finals | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 62% | Draw 24% | York United 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 53% | xG Cavalry FC 2.02 / York United 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.170 / def 0.890 | York United attack 0.790 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
York United xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 4 - 1 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Quarter-finals fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 62% chance of winning, York United a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
Record (6 meetings): Cavalry FC 4W | Draws 0 | York United 2W.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. York United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.79x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
62%
1.62
24%
4.10
14%
7.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.91
0.89
York United xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
7.18
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
53.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.89 for York United, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 25W 21D 12L record — W-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
York United's form line: 22W 16D 20L from 58 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.41 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (14W 11D 4L).
On the road, York United have gone 7W 9D 13L from 29 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.41 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 25W 21D 12L in their last 58 games (1.66 PPG), while York United have gone 22W 16D 20L in their last 58 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.83 PPG; York United away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 62%, York United 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Cavalry FC) and 55% (York United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; York United in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cavalry FC's games and 59% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Cavalry FC's matches and 55% of York United's.
Do Cavalry FC and York United tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, York United in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cavalry FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of York United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat York United 4-1 at ATCO Field, Quarter-finals, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.02 xG and York United 0.89 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.89 against York United attack 0.79 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 62% | Draw 24% | York United 14%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 53%, York United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.66 PPG, York United 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. York United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.