Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off: Saturday 29 August 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at ATCO Field, Cavalry FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vancouver FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Cavalry FC, 1 for Vancouver FC and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2026, ended 0–1 with Vancouver FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 55% versus Vancouver FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 60% | Vancouver FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.83 xG and Vancouver FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.011 / defence 0.993 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 28 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Vancouver FC 4.00. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 70% | Vancouver FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Cavalry FC 1.83 / Vancouver FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.011 / def 0.993 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Vancouver FC xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC 1 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 49% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Record (9 meetings): Cavalry FC 3W | Draws 5 | Vancouver FC 1W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (1.00x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.82
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.09
1.26
Vancouver FC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
4%
25.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.26 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 25W 12D 10L record — W-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC's form line: 12W 12D 23L from 47 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.26 PPG from 23 outings (16W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 5W 6D 12L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 25W 12D 10L in their last 47 games (1.85 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 12W 12D 23L in their last 47 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.26 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
5
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 56%, Vancouver FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Cavalry FC) and 52% (Vancouver FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Vancouver FC in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cavalry FC's games and 61% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Cavalry FC's matches and 52% of Vancouver FC's.
Do Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Vancouver FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Vancouver FC 1-0 at ATCO Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.83 xG and Vancouver FC 1.26 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 49% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 25%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 60%, Vancouver FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.