Cavalry FC 0-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face Vancouver FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus Vancouver FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at ATCO Field, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at ATCO Field this season.
Vancouver FC have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Cavalry FC's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Vancouver FC's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Vancouver FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Cavalry FC, 0 for Vancouver FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Cavalry FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 64% versus Vancouver FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 52% | Vancouver FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.88 xG and Vancouver FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.041 / defence 1.060 | Vancouver FC attack 1.037 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.161. Vancouver FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Cavalry FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Cavalry FC games / 52 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Vancouver FC 4.17. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 80% | Vancouver FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Cavalry FC 1.88 / Vancouver FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.041 / def 1.060 | Vancouver FC attack 1.037 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Vancouver FC xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC 0 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 50% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Record (3 meetings): Cavalry FC 2W | Draws 1 | Vancouver FC 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Vancouver FC's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (1.04x) against Cavalry FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.86
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.15
1.27
Vancouver FC xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
4%
27.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.27 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 26W 15D 11L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC's form line: 15W 10D 27L from 52 games, 1.06 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cavalry FC are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.00 PPG from 25 outings (14W 8D 3L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 6W 4D 15L from 25 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.06 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 26W 15D 11L in their last 52 games (1.79 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 15W 10D 27L in their last 52 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Vancouver FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
5
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Vancouver FC 1-0 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 68%, Vancouver FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cavalry FC and 64% for Vancouver FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cavalry FC's games and 56% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cavalry FC's matches and 64% of Vancouver FC's.
Do Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cavalry FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC and Vancouver FC finished level at 0-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 11, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.88 xG and Vancouver FC 1.27 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cavalry FC fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Vancouver FC attack 1.04 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 50% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 24%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 52%, Vancouver FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.