Cavalry FC 2-1 Supra du Quebec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cavalry FC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Supra du Quebec make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 July 2026 at 02:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cavalry FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Supra du Quebec have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Supra du Quebec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Supra du Quebec's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Cavalry FC. A 0.90 PPG lead over Supra du Quebec (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Supra du Quebec in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cavalry FC 1W, Supra du Quebec 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Cavalry FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cavalry FC — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Supra du Quebec — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 33% versus Supra du Quebec 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 33% | Supra du Quebec 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.11 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.015 / defence 0.991 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 0 Supra du Quebec games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Supra du Quebec 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 70% | Supra du Quebec 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Jul 2026, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Cavalry FC 2.11 / Supra du Quebec 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.015 / def 0.991 | Supra du Quebec attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (60%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Supra du Quebec xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec kicked off at 02:00 on Wednesday 29 July 2026 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Cavalry FC 2 - 1 Supra du Quebec.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec part of?
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 60% chance of winning, Supra du Quebec a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
Record (1 meetings): Cavalry FC 1W | Draws 0 | Supra du Quebec 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Supra du Quebec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Supra du Quebec's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Supra du Quebec's attack (0.85x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 28/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.28
17%
5.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.18
1.07
Supra du Quebec xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.94
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
12%
8.27
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
2%
49.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.07 for Supra du Quebec, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 7W 3D 2L from 12 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Supra du Quebec, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 6L across 12 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Supra du Quebec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Supra du Quebec heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Supra du Quebec's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Supra du Quebec are on 1.50 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Supra du Quebec in 75%.
Defensively: Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Supra du Quebec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 7W 3D 2L in their last 12 games (2.00 PPG), while Supra du Quebec have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Supra du Quebec away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.20 PPG; Supra du Quebec away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Supra du Quebec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Supra du Quebec in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cavalry FC
0
Draws
0
Supra du Quebec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
From 2 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 2, Supra du Quebec have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2026, when Cavalry FC 2-1 Supra du Quebec.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Supra du Quebec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Cavalry FC, 80% for Supra du Quebec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cavalry FC) and 60% (Supra du Quebec).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Supra du Quebec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Supra du Quebec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cavalry FC's games and 80% of Supra du Quebec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 60% of Supra du Quebec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Supra du Quebec in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Supra du Quebec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Supra du Quebec 2-1 at ATCO Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.11 xG and Supra du Quebec 1.07 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Supra du Quebec attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 60% | Draw 23% | Supra du Quebec 17%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 33%, Supra du Quebec 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Supra du Quebec's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Supra du Quebec (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.