Palmeiras 0-2 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Vitoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Vitoria at Allianz Parque in Serie A (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 28 July 2024 at 00:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Palmeiras have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Vitoria stand at 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vitoria's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 6L across their last 9 road games (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Palmeiras have won 1, Vitoria 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Palmeiras 1–0 Vitoria — a Palmeiras win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (last 19 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Vitoria in-play and half-time data (last 19 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 26% versus Vitoria 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 37% | Vitoria 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.06 xG and Vitoria 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.206 / defence 0.754 | Vitoria attack 0.871 / defence 1.257. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.023. Vitoria's defence rating of 1.257 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Palmeiras's projected output up. Palmeiras have a tight defence (rating 0.754), which is pulling Vitoria's projected output down. Data: built from Palmeiras's last 57 games and Vitoria's last 19.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 70% | Draw 20% | Vitoria 11%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.44 | Draw 5.02 | Vitoria 9.47. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (70%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Palmeiras 30% (last 10 home games) | Vitoria 67% (last 9 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, matchday 20 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 70% | Draw 20% | Vitoria 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Palmeiras 2.06 / Vitoria 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.206 / def 0.754 | Vitoria attack 0.871 / def 1.257 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Vitoria xG
43%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palmeiras vs Vitoria FAQs
What time does Palmeiras vs Vitoria kick off?
Palmeiras vs Vitoria kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Palmeiras 0 - 2 Vitoria.
Where is Palmeiras vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Vitoria part of?
Palmeiras vs Vitoria is a Serie A fixture (matchday 20) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 70% chance of winning, Vitoria a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Palmeiras and Vitoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Palmeiras vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Vitoria's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, Vitoria's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Palmeiras's last 57 games and Vitoria's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
70%
1.44
20%
5.02
11%
9.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.74
0.67
Vitoria xG
1.44
70%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
9.47
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
13%
7.88
Win to Nil
36%
2.81
1%
74.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 9.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palmeiras vs Vitoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.67 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 11W 3D 5L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Vitoria's form line: 4W 3D 12L from 19 games, 0.79 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 1.10 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitoria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.44 PPG from their last 9 home games (7W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Palmeiras are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vitoria have gone 1W 2D 6L from their last 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Vitoria are on 1.05 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Palmeiras have seen both teams score in 26% of their recent games; Vitoria in 63%.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Vitoria
Blended
Palmeiras (Home) vs Vitoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palmeiras
Blended
Vitoria
Blended
❓ Palmeiras vs Vitoria Form FAQs
What form are Palmeiras and Vitoria in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 11W 3D 5L in their last 19 games (1.89 PPG), while Vitoria have gone 4W 3D 12L in their last 19 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Vitoria away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.44 PPG; Vitoria away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Vitoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Vitoria in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 30 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Feb 2026, when Palmeiras won Palmeiras 5-1 Vitoria.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Vitoria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
2
Draws
1
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Palmeiras vs Vitoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vitoria?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Palmeiras have won 3, Vitoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Vitoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 July 2026: Vitoria 0-4 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Vitoria?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Vitoria see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 33%, Vitoria 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Palmeiras) and 56% (Vitoria).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palmeiras vs Vitoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palmeiras and Vitoria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 67% of Vitoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palmeiras and Vitoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Palmeiras's recent games and 56% of Vitoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Vitoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 44% of Vitoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitoria cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Palmeiras.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria beat Palmeiras 0-2 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.06 xG and Vitoria 0.67 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Vitoria outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.21 / defence 0.75 against Vitoria attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 70% | Draw 20% | Vitoria 11%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 70%. Instead the game produced a Vitoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 37%, Vitoria 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vitoria's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Vitoria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.