Cuiaba 1-2 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cuiaba face Atletico Paranaense.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cuiaba host Atletico Paranaense at Arena Pantanal in Serie A (matchday 20). Kick-off is Monday 29 July 2024 at 00:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Cuiaba — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cuiaba at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, Atletico Paranaense have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atletico Paranaense's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cuiaba 1.30 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cuiaba's 20% BTTS rate and Atletico Paranaense's 30% (from Cuiaba's last 10 home games and Atletico Paranaense's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Cuiaba, 4 for Atletico Paranaense and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Cuiaba 0–4 Atletico Paranaense — a Atletico Paranaense win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Atletico Paranaense in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 36% versus Atletico Paranaense 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 40% | Atletico Paranaense 36%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cuiaba surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Atletico Paranaense have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.87 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.784 / defence 1.019 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.858 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.326 / away 1.047. Cuiaba's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Cuiaba's last 55 games and Atletico Paranaense's last 55.
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 32% | Draw 34% | Atletico Paranaense 34%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.11 | Draw 2.98 | Atletico Paranaense 2.91. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.87 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cuiaba's last 10 home games and Atletico Paranaense's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cuiaba 20% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Paranaense 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, matchday 20 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Monday 29 July 2024 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 32% | Draw 34% | Atletico Paranaense 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Cuiaba 0.87 / Atletico Paranaense 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.784 / def 1.019 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.858 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.326 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Atletico Paranaense xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense FAQs
What time does Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Monday 29 July 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Cuiaba 1 - 2 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense is a Serie A fixture (matchday 20) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 32% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.78x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cuiaba's last 55 games and Atletico Paranaense's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
32%
3.11
34%
2.98
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.79
0.92
Atletico Paranaense xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
14%
6.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.3 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.92 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 18W 14D 23L from 55 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 16L across 55 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.24 PPG, Atletico Paranaense on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 7W 9D 12L from their last 28 home games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 7W 8D 13L across their last 28 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Paranaense's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.29 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Cuiaba (Home) vs Atletico Paranaense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cuiaba
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense Form FAQs
What form are Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 18W 14D 23L in their last 55 games (1.24 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 21W 18D 16L in their last 55 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.07 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 28 July 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Paranaense have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Apr 2024, when Atletico Paranaense won Atletico Paranaense 4-0 Cuiaba.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Atletico Paranaense specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
1
Draws
5
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Cuiaba have won 2, Atletico Paranaense have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 July 2024: Cuiaba 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 36%, Atletico Paranaense 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Cuiaba and 25% for Atletico Paranaense.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 46% of games; Atletico Paranaense in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cuiaba vs Atletico Paranaense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 43% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cuiaba's recent games and 25% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Atletico Paranaense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 68% of Atletico Paranaense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Paranaense edge out Cuiaba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Cuiaba 1-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.87 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.92 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.86 / defence 0.84, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 32% | Draw 34% | Atletico Paranaense 34%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 40%, Atletico Paranaense 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.24 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Paranaense win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.