Mirassol 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mirassol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mirassol vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mirassol and Fluminense meet at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Mirassol at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Mirassol are significantly better at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia than their overall form suggests.
Fluminense have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mirassol lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mirassol 58% versus Fluminense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mirassol 47% | Fluminense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mirassol 1.46 xG and Fluminense 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mirassol attack 0.921 / defence 1.122 | Fluminense attack 1.103 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.097. Data: 53 Mirassol games / 54 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mirassol 39% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 34%. Fair-value odds: Mirassol 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mirassol are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mirassol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Mirassol 60% | Fluminense 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mirassol vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mirassol 39% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Mirassol 1.46 / Fluminense 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Mirassol attack 0.921 / def 1.122 | Fluminense attack 1.103 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Mirassol xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Fluminense xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mirassol vs Fluminense kick off?
Mirassol vs Fluminense kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What was the final score in Mirassol vs Fluminense?
Mirassol 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Mirassol vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia.
What competition is Mirassol vs Fluminense part of?
Mirassol vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Mirassol vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Mirassol a 39% chance of winning, Fluminense a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Mirassol and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Mirassol vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Fluminense?
Record (2 meetings): Mirassol 1W | Draws 0 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Mirassol and Fluminense in?
Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Fluminense (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mirassol's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (1.10x) against Mirassol's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.75
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Mirassol xG
Total xG
2.82
1.36
Fluminense xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
8%
12.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mirassol vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Mirassol and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Mirassol and 1.36 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Mirassol vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mirassol's recent record stands at 18W 13D 7L from 38 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 19W 7D 12L across 38 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-D-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.76 PPG for Mirassol against 1.68 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mirassol have managed 12W 7D 0L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Mirassol are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fluminense's away record stands at 4W 6D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mirassol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mirassol are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.32 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mirassol
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mirassol and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 19W 7D 12L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mirassol at home or Fluminense away?
Mirassol's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mirassol at home: 2.26 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Mirassol or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Fluminense in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mirassol have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Mirassol
0
Draws
1
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mirassol and Fluminense?
From 3 meetings on record, Mirassol have won 2, Fluminense have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mirassol and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mirassol 1-0 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Mirassol and Fluminense?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mirassol 68%, Fluminense 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Mirassol) and 37% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Mirassol keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Fluminense in 32%; Fluminense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mirassol home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mirassol play Fluminense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mirassol's games and 42% of Fluminense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mirassol vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Mirassol's recent games and 37% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mirassol and Fluminense tend to score early?
Mirassol have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mirassol edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mirassol beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mirassol 1.46 xG and Fluminense 1.36 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mirassol attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against Fluminense attack 1.10 / defence 1.08, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mirassol 39% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 34%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mirassol 47%, Fluminense 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Fluminense's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mirassol 1.76 PPG, Fluminense 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mirassol win broke the near-deadlock. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.