Fluminense 1-2 Santos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fluminense at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Santos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santos make the trip to Estádio do Maracanã to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Fluminense (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio do Maracanã, Fluminense have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Santos's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Santos have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Fluminense against 2.00 for Santos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fluminense register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Santos in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, Fluminense are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 3 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2026, ended 3–2 with Fluminense winning.
The historical record gives Fluminense a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 53% versus Santos 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 46% | Santos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.74 xG and Santos 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.210 / defence 0.848 | Santos attack 1.337 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.130. Santos have an above-average attack strength of 1.337 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 68 Fluminense games / 68 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 47% | Draw 27% | Santos 27%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Santos 3.70. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 70% | Santos 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 47% | Draw 27% | Santos 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Fluminense 1.74 / Santos 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.210 / def 0.848 | Santos attack 1.337 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Santos xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Santos kick off?
Fluminense vs Santos kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Santos?
Fluminense 1 - 2 Santos.
Where is Fluminense vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Santos part of?
Fluminense vs Santos is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 47% chance of winning, Santos a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fluminense and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Santos?
Record (9 meetings): Fluminense 5W | Draws 3 | Santos 1W.
What form are Fluminense and Santos in?
Fluminense (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Santos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.21) and Santos's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (1.34x) against Fluminense's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.76
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Fluminense xG
Total xG
3.02
1.28
Santos xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
5%
21.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Fluminense and 1.28 for Santos, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense come into this having played 68 games, going 33W 16D 19L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.31 PPG from 68 outings (23W 20D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Fluminense against 1.31 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fluminense's home form reads 26W 4D 4L across 34 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Santos have taken 1.06 points per game from 34 outings (9W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.34 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Santos in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 33W 16D 19L in their last 68 games (1.69 PPG), while Santos have gone 23W 20D 25L in their last 68 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Santos away?
Fluminense's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.41 PPG; Santos away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Santos in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 18 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 0-3 on 29 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fluminense
3
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Santos?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 5, Santos have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2026, when Fluminense 1-2 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Santos?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Santos 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Fluminense and 68% for Santos. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Santos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Fluminense's games and 65% of Santos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fluminense vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Fluminense's matches and 68% of Santos's.
Do Fluminense and Santos tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Santos in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Santos defy the odds to beat Fluminense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santos beat Fluminense 1-2 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.74 xG and Santos 1.28 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.21 / defence 0.85 against Santos attack 1.34 / defence 0.98, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 47% | Draw 27% | Santos 27%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Santos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 46%, Santos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.69 PPG, Santos 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santos win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.