Criciuma 1-1 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Criciuma at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Criciuma vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Criciuma and Fluminense meet at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Serie A (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 July 2024 at 01:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Criciuma have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Criciuma's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 2L across their last 7 home games (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fluminense (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone.
Fluminense away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Criciuma's favour (1.10 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Criciuma half-time and goal-timing data (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Fluminense half-time and goal-timing data (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Criciuma 85% and Fluminense 46% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Criciuma 69% | Fluminense 38%). Note also that Fluminense surrender HT leads in 75% of cases while Criciuma recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.39 xG and Fluminense 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.977 / defence 1.338 | Fluminense attack 0.635 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.070. Fluminense's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Criciuma's defence rating of 1.338 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fluminense's projected output up. Data: built from Criciuma's last 13 games and Fluminense's last 53.
Result probabilities: Criciuma 46% | Draw 31% | Fluminense 23%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 2.16 | Draw 3.22 | Fluminense 4.42. Criciuma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Criciuma at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Criciuma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Criciuma 86% (last 7 home games) | Fluminense 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, matchday 16 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Friday 12 July 2024 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 46% | Draw 31% | Fluminense 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Criciuma 1.39 / Fluminense 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.977 / def 1.338 | Fluminense attack 0.635 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Criciuma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Fluminense xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Criciuma vs Fluminense FAQs
What time does Criciuma vs Fluminense kick off?
Criciuma vs Fluminense kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Friday 12 July 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Fluminense?
Criciuma 1 - 1 Fluminense.
Where is Criciuma vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Fluminense part of?
Criciuma vs Fluminense is a Serie A fixture (matchday 16) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 46% chance of winning, Fluminense a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Criciuma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Criciuma and Fluminense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Criciuma vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Criciuma's attack rating (0.98) and Fluminense's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.64x) against Criciuma's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from Criciuma's last 13 games and Fluminense's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Criciuma Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.22
23%
4.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.30
0.91
Fluminense xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.42
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Criciuma vs Fluminense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Criciuma and 0.91 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Criciuma's recent record stands at 4W 4D 5L from 13 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Fluminense, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 9L across 13 games — 0.46 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Criciuma by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fluminense heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Criciuma have managed 2W 2D 2L from their last 6 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fluminense's away record stands at 0W 0D 6L across their last 6 away games, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Criciuma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Criciuma are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 0.62 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma have seen both teams score in 85% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
Criciuma (Home) vs Fluminense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Criciuma
Blended
Fluminense
Blended
❓ Criciuma vs Fluminense Form FAQs
What form are Criciuma and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Criciuma have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 1W 3D 9L in their last 13 (0.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Criciuma at home or Fluminense away?
Criciuma's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Criciuma at home: 1.33 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Criciuma and Fluminense, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 26 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Criciuma
2
Draws
0
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Criciuma vs Fluminense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Fluminense?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Criciuma have won 0, Fluminense have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Fluminense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 November 2024: Fluminense 0-0 Criciuma.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Criciuma 83%, Fluminense 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Criciuma) and 33% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Fluminense in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Criciuma vs Fluminense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Criciuma and Fluminense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Criciuma's recent matches and 17% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Criciuma and Fluminense matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Criciuma's recent games and 33% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Criciuma and Fluminense matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Criciuma's recent matches and 50% of Fluminense's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Criciuma and Fluminense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 16, as Criciuma and Fluminense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.39 xG and Fluminense 0.91 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.98 / defence 1.34 against Fluminense attack 0.64 / defence 1.02, drawn from 13/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 46% | Draw 31% | Fluminense 23%, with Criciuma to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Criciuma 69%, Fluminense 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Criciuma's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Criciuma arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Criciuma (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.