Corinthians 2-1 Criciuma – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Corinthians at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Criciuma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 17 as Corinthians welcome Criciuma to Neo Química Arena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 17 July 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Neo Química Arena, Corinthians have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Criciuma stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Criciuma have posted 2W 1D 3L from 6 away outings — 1.17 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Criciuma — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Corinthians register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Criciuma in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Criciuma in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Corinthians 36% and Criciuma 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 36% | Criciuma 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.69 xG and Criciuma 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.007 / defence 1.005 | Criciuma attack 1.035 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.082. Criciuma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Corinthians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Corinthians games / 14 Criciuma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 49% | Draw 28% | Criciuma 24%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Criciuma 4.17. Corinthians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Corinthians at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Criciuma (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 60% | Criciuma 83% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Criciuma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Jul 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 49% | Draw 28% | Criciuma 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Corinthians 1.69 / Criciuma 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.007 / def 1.005 | Criciuma attack 1.035 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Criciuma xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Criciuma kick off?
Corinthians vs Criciuma kicked off at 01:00 on Wednesday 17 July 2024 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Criciuma?
Corinthians 2 - 1 Criciuma.
Where is Corinthians vs Criciuma being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Criciuma part of?
Corinthians vs Criciuma is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Criciuma?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 49% chance of winning, Criciuma a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Criciuma?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Corinthians and Criciuma will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Criciuma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Criciuma?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Corinthians and Criciuma in?
Corinthians (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Criciuma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Corinthians's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Criciuma's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, Criciuma's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.60
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.81
1.13
Criciuma xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
16%
6.34
4%
22.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Criciuma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Criciuma expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.13 for Criciuma, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Criciuma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Corinthians have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 2W 5D 7L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Criciuma's form line: 4W 5D 5L from 14 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Criciuma are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Corinthians.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Corinthians have posted 1.50 PPG from 6 outings (2W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — Corinthians are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Criciuma have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Corinthians are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Criciuma are on 1.50 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma in 86%.
Last 14 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
Criciuma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Criciuma in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while Criciuma have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Criciuma away?
Corinthians's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.50 PPG; Criciuma away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Corinthians and Criciuma runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Corinthians
0
Draws
0
Criciuma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Criciuma?
From 2 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 2, Criciuma have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Criciuma last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2024, when Criciuma 2-4 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Criciuma?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Corinthians at 50%, Criciuma at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Corinthians and 83% for Criciuma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Corinthians have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Criciuma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Criciuma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Corinthians's games and 83% of Criciuma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Corinthians vs Criciuma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Corinthians's matches and 83% of Criciuma's.
Do Corinthians and Criciuma tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Criciuma in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Criciuma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Criciuma 2-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.69 xG and Criciuma 1.13 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Criciuma attack 1.03 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 49% | Draw 28% | Criciuma 24%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 36%, Criciuma 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Criciuma's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Criciuma arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Corinthians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.