Standard Liege 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liege vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Charleroi travel to Maurice Dufrasnestadion to take on Standard Liege. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Standard Liege — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Standard Liege have posted 3W 4D 3L at Maurice Dufrasnestadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Standard Liege, 4 for Charleroi and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Charleroi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Standard Liege in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Charleroi in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liege 47% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liege 49% | Charleroi 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liege 1.14 xG and Charleroi 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liege attack 0.962 / defence 0.844 | Charleroi attack 1.068 / defence 0.773. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.290. Charleroi's defence strength of 0.773 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Standard Liege games / 37 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liege 35% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 36%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liege 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Charleroi 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liege 50% | Charleroi 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liege vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Maurice Dufrasnestadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liege 35% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Standard Liege 1.14 / Charleroi 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liege attack 0.962 / def 0.844 | Charleroi attack 1.068 / def 0.773 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Standard Liege xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Charleroi xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liege vs Charleroi kick off?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What was the final score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Standard Liege 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is Standard Liege vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion.
What competition is Standard Liege vs Charleroi part of?
Standard Liege vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liege a 35% chance of winning, Charleroi a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Standard Liege and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liege vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Record (9 meetings): Standard Liege 3W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 4W.
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in?
Standard Liege (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Standard Liege's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Standard Liege's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
35%
2.84
28%
3.53
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Standard Liege xG
Total xG
2.30
1.16
Charleroi xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
11%
9.09
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 11.6 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Standard Liege and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Standard Liege and 1.16 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Standard Liege have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 19W 11D 17L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi's form line: 20W 9D 18L from 47 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liege on 1.45 PPG, Charleroi on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Standard Liege have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (7W 8D 8L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 11W 3D 9L from 23 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liege are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.38 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liege
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liege and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Standard Liege have gone 19W 11D 17L in their last 47 games (1.45 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 9D 18L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liege at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liege at home: 1.26 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Charleroi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Standard Liege's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Standard Liege
2
Draws
5
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Standard Liege have won 3, Charleroi have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liege and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Standard Liege 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liege and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liege see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liege 52%, Charleroi 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Standard Liege) and 39% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Standard Liege keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Charleroi in 35%; Standard Liege have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liege home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liege play Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Standard Liege's recent matches and 44% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Standard Liege vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Standard Liege's recent games and 39% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Standard Liege and Charleroi tend to score early?
Standard Liege have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out Standard Liege 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Standard Liege 0-1 at Maurice Dufrasnestadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liege 1.14 xG and Charleroi 1.16 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liege attack 0.96 / defence 0.84 against Charleroi attack 1.07 / defence 0.77, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liege 35% | Draw 28% | Charleroi 36%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liege 49%, Charleroi 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liege's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charleroi's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liege 1.45 PPG, Charleroi 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.