Kortrijk 1-0 Standard Liege – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs Standard Liege encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as Kortrijk welcome Standard Liege to Guldensporenstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kortrijk — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Kortrijk have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Guldensporenstadion, Kortrijk have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Standard Liege stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Standard Liege have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Standard Liege's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Kortrijk carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Kortrijk, 2 for Standard Liege and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Kortrijk winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kortrijk trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Standard Liege trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 44% versus Standard Liege 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 54% | Standard Liege 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.08 xG and Standard Liege 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.786 / defence 1.023 | Standard Liege attack 0.818 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.269. Kortrijk's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Kortrijk games / 33 Standard Liege games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 35% | Draw 30% | Standard Liege 34%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Standard Liege 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kortrijk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. This conflicts with form data: Kortrijk 50% | Standard Liege 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Standard Liege | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 35% | Draw 30% | Standard Liege 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Kortrijk 1.08 / Standard Liege 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.786 / def 1.023 | Standard Liege attack 0.818 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Standard Liege xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kortrijk vs Standard Liege kick off?
Kortrijk vs Standard Liege kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Kortrijk 1 - 0 Standard Liege.
Where is Kortrijk vs Standard Liege being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Standard Liege part of?
Kortrijk vs Standard Liege is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 35% chance of winning, Standard Liege a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Kortrijk and Standard Liege will score (BTTS).
Will Kortrijk vs Standard Liege have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Standard Liege?
Record (6 meetings): Kortrijk 2W | Draws 2 | Standard Liege 2W.
What form are Kortrijk and Standard Liege in?
Kortrijk (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Standard Liege (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.79x the league average against Standard Liege's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Standard Liege's attack versus Kortrijk's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.29
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.14
1.06
Standard Liege xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Standard Liege expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.06 for Standard Liege, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Standard Liege?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 11W 7D 23L from 41 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kortrijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Standard Liege, meanwhile, have gone 9W 17D 15L across 41 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Standard Liege, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kortrijk on 0.98 PPG, Standard Liege on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 6W 3D 11L from 20 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Standard Liege's away record stands at 2W 8D 10L across 20 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Kortrijk are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Standard Liege are on 1.12 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Early Season
Standard Liege
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kortrijk and Standard Liege in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 11W 7D 23L in their last 41 games (0.98 PPG), while Standard Liege have gone 9W 17D 15L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Standard Liege away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.05 PPG; Standard Liege away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kortrijk's record when hosting Standard Liege specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kortrijk
2
Draws
3
Standard Liege
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Standard Liege?
From 8 meetings on record, Kortrijk have won 3, Standard Liege have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Standard Liege last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2025, when Standard Liege 1-0 Kortrijk.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Standard Liege are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, Standard Liege 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Kortrijk and 70% for Standard Liege. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Standard Liege away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kortrijk play Standard Liege?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kortrijk's games and 75% of Standard Liege's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kortrijk vs Standard Liege usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Kortrijk's matches and 70% of Standard Liege's.
Do Kortrijk and Standard Liege tend to score early?
Kortrijk have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Standard Liege in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kortrijk edge out Standard Liege 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kortrijk beat Standard Liege 1-0 at Guldensporenstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.08 xG and Standard Liege 1.06 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Standard Liege landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.79 / defence 1.02 against Standard Liege attack 0.82 / defence 0.84, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 35% | Draw 30% | Standard Liege 34%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 54%, Standard Liege 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Standard Liege's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 0.98 PPG, Standard Liege 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kortrijk win broke the near-deadlock. Kortrijk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liege (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.