Kortrijk 2-4 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kortrijk at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kortrijk vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kortrijk and RWDM meet at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Round - 3). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Kortrijk's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Kortrijk have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
RWDM (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RWDM's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Kortrijk. A 0.50 PPG lead over RWDM (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Kortrijk edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended Kortrijk 3–2 RWDM — a Kortrijk win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Kortrijk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
RWDM goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 50% versus RWDM 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 56% | RWDM 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.82 xG and RWDM 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.750 / defence 1.153 | RWDM attack 0.860 / defence 1.542. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.82. RWDM's defence rating of 1.542 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kortrijk's projected output up. Data: built from Kortrijk's last 64 games and RWDM's last 30.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 53% | Draw 23% | RWDM 24%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 1.90 | Draw 4.35 | RWDM 4.10. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Kortrijk's last 10 home games and RWDM's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kortrijk 40% (last 10 home games) | RWDM 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs RWDM | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 53% | Draw 23% | RWDM 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Kortrijk 1.82 / RWDM 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.750 / def 1.153 | RWDM attack 0.860 / def 1.542 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
1.17
RWDM xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kortrijk vs RWDM FAQs
What time does Kortrijk vs RWDM kick off?
Kortrijk vs RWDM kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs RWDM?
Kortrijk 2 - 4 RWDM.
Where is Kortrijk vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs RWDM part of?
Kortrijk vs RWDM is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 53% chance of winning, RWDM a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Kortrijk and RWDM will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kortrijk vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.75x the league average against RWDM's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RWDM's attack (0.86x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Kortrijk's last 64 games and RWDM's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.35
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.98
1.17
RWDM xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
4%
25.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kortrijk vs RWDM Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Kortrijk and 1.17 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 13W 14D 37L from 64 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
RWDM, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 22L across 64 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours RWDM by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kortrijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 8W 8D 16L from their last 32 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RWDM's away record stands at 11W 6D 15L across their last 32 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.55 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RWDM in 62%.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Current Season
RWDM
Current Season
Kortrijk (Home) vs RWDM (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kortrijk
Current Season
RWDM
Current Season
❓ Kortrijk vs RWDM Form FAQs
What form are Kortrijk and RWDM in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 13W 14D 37L in their last 64 games (0.83 PPG), while RWDM have gone 27W 15D 22L in their last 64 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or RWDM away?
RWDM's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.00 PPG; RWDM away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 17 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Kortrijk have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against RWDM — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Kortrijk
1
Draws
1
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Kortrijk vs RWDM H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and RWDM?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Kortrijk have won 4, RWDM have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and RWDM last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 April 2026: Kortrijk 3-1 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and RWDM?
Kortrijk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 50%, RWDM 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Kortrijk and 72% for RWDM. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kortrijk have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kortrijk vs RWDM Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kortrijk and RWDM matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Kortrijk's games and 69% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kortrijk and RWDM matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Kortrijk's matches and 72% of RWDM's.
Do Kortrijk and RWDM matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 66% of RWDM's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RWDM cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Kortrijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat Kortrijk 2-4 at Guldensporenstadion, Relegation Round - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.82 xG and RWDM 1.17 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. RWDM outscored their 1.17 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.75 / defence 1.15 against RWDM attack 0.86 / defence 1.54, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 53% | Draw 23% | RWDM 24%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a RWDM win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 56%, RWDM 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
RWDM's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.83. That form edge translated into the three points. Kortrijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RWDM (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.