Kortrijk 1-2 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kortrijk at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kortrijk face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kortrijk and Charleroi meet at Guldensporenstadion in Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Round - 2). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Kortrijk have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Kortrijk at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charleroi's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Kortrijk's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) — Kortrijk have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Charleroi in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Charleroi edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.8 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Feb 2024, ended Kortrijk 1–0 Charleroi — a Kortrijk win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Kortrijk half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Charleroi half-time and goal-timing data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kortrijk 48% versus Charleroi 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kortrijk 55% | Charleroi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kortrijk 1.23 xG and Charleroi 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kortrijk attack 0.743 / defence 1.157 | Charleroi attack 0.623 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.176. Kortrijk's attack rating of 0.743 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Charleroi's attack rating of 0.623 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Kortrijk's last 64 games and Charleroi's last 63.
Result probabilities: Kortrijk 45% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 26%. Fair-value odds: Kortrijk 2.22 | Draw 3.40 | Charleroi 3.92. Kortrijk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kortrijk as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kortrijk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kortrijk's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kortrijk 30% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 10% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kortrijk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Guldensporenstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kortrijk 45% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Kortrijk 1.23 / Charleroi 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Kortrijk attack 0.743 / def 1.157 | Charleroi attack 0.623 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Kortrijk (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Kortrijk xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Charleroi xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kortrijk vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Kortrijk vs Charleroi kick off?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Guldensporenstadion.
What was the final score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Kortrijk 1 - 2 Charleroi.
Where is Kortrijk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Guldensporenstadion.
What competition is Kortrijk vs Charleroi part of?
Kortrijk vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Relegation Round - 2) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Kortrijk a 45% chance of winning, Charleroi a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kortrijk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Kortrijk and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Kortrijk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kortrijk's attack at 0.74x the league average against Charleroi's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.62x) against Kortrijk's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Kortrijk's last 64 games and Charleroi's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kortrijk Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.40
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Kortrijk xG
Total xG
2.08
0.85
Charleroi xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
7%
13.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kortrijk vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Kortrijk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Kortrijk and 0.85 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Kortrijk vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kortrijk's recent record stands at 14W 14D 36L from 64 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 28L across 64 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Kortrijk against 1.22 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kortrijk have managed 8W 8D 15L from their last 31 home games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 8W 8D 15L across their last 31 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kortrijk are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.11 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kortrijk
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
Kortrijk (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kortrijk
Current Season
Charleroi
Current Season
❓ Kortrijk vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Kortrijk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Kortrijk have gone 14W 14D 36L in their last 64 games (0.88 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 21W 15D 28L in their last 64 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kortrijk at home or Charleroi away?
Kortrijk's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kortrijk at home: 1.03 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Charleroi have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kortrijk have gone 1W 0D 4L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kortrijk
2
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Kortrijk vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kortrijk have won 1, Charleroi have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kortrijk and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Kortrijk 1-3 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Kortrijk and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kortrijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kortrijk 48%, Charleroi 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kortrijk) and 48% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 36%; Kortrijk have failed to score in 39% of games; Charleroi in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kortrijk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kortrijk vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kortrijk and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 45% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kortrijk and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kortrijk's recent games and 48% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kortrijk and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Kortrijk's recent matches and 61% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat Kortrijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Kortrijk 1-2 at Guldensporenstadion, Relegation Round - 2, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kortrijk 1.23 xG and Charleroi 0.85 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Charleroi outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kortrijk attack 0.74 / defence 1.16 against Charleroi attack 0.62 / defence 1.05, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kortrijk 45% | Draw 29% | Charleroi 26%, with Kortrijk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Charleroi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kortrijk 55%, Charleroi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kortrijk's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Charleroi's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kortrijk 0.88 PPG, Charleroi 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.