Genk 3-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genk vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genk and Charleroi meet at Cegeka Arena in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Genk's record over their last 10 games: 8W 0D 2L (2.40 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Genk at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Charleroi (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Charleroi away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Genk's 2.40 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Charleroi's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Genk edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2024, ended Genk 1–0 Charleroi — a Genk win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 52% versus Charleroi 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 56% | Charleroi 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 2.07 xG and Charleroi 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.179 / defence 0.872 | Charleroi attack 0.846 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.016. Data: built from Genk's last 44 games and Charleroi's last 44.
Result probabilities: Genk 66% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 10%. Fair-value odds: Genk 1.53 | Draw 4.07 | Charleroi 10.12. The model has a clear lean to Genk (66%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genk as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Genk's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genk 30% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 15 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 66% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Genk 2.07 / Charleroi 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.179 / def 0.872 | Charleroi attack 0.846 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: Genk (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Genk xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Charleroi xG
49%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genk vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Genk vs Charleroi kick off?
Genk vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Genk 3 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Genk vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Charleroi part of?
Genk vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 15) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 66% chance of winning, Charleroi a 10% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Genk and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Genk vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genk's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (0.85x) against Genk's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Genk's last 44 games and Charleroi's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
66%
1.53
25%
4.07
10%
10.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Genk xG
Total xG
2.82
0.75
Charleroi xG
1.53
66%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
10.12
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
13%
7.93
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
1%
80.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genk vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Genk and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Genk and 0.75 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Charleroi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, Genk have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 24W 11D 15L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 17W 11D 22L from 50 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charleroi.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genk have posted 2.04 PPG from their last 25 home games (15W 6D 4L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 5W 5D 15L from their last 25 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charleroi's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genk are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.02 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
Genk (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genk
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Genk vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Genk and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 24W 11D 15L in their last 50 games (1.66 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Charleroi away?
Genk's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.04 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Genk or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Charleroi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was on 2 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won Genk 4-1 Charleroi on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Genk
5
Draws
2
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Genk vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Genk have won 3, Charleroi have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 May 2026: Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Charleroi?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 44%, Charleroi 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Genk) and 44% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Charleroi in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genk vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genk and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genk's recent matches and 40% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genk and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Genk's recent games and 44% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genk and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Genk's recent matches and 60% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Charleroi 3-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 2.07 xG and Charleroi 0.75 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Genk beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.18 / defence 0.87 against Charleroi attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 66% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 10%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 56%, Charleroi 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Genk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.