Union St. Gilloise 4-0 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 36% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union St. Gilloise vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Union St. Gilloise welcome Genk to Stade Joseph Mariën in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Union St. Gilloise stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Union St. Gilloise at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Union St. Gilloise are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Genk — last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Genk have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Genk are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Union St. Gilloise, 1 for Genk and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 May 2024, ended Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Genk — a Union St. Gilloise win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Genk in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 58% versus Genk 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 57% | Genk 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.30 xG and Genk 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.866 / defence 0.945 | Genk attack 1.402 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.051. Genk have an above-average attack rating of 1.402, which lifts their away xG to 1.39. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 43 games and Genk's last 43.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 32% | Draw 32% | Genk 36%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 3.16 | Draw 3.09 | Genk 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 36% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Union St. Gilloise's last 10 home games and Genk's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 40% (last 10 home games) | Genk 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 32% | Draw 32% | Genk 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.30 / Genk 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.866 / def 0.945 | Genk attack 1.402 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Genk (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Genk xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Genk FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Union St. Gilloise 4 - 0 Genk.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Genk part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 14) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 32% chance of winning, Genk a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Genk will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Union St. Gilloise's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 43 games and Genk's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
32%
3.16
32%
3.09
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.69
1.39
Genk xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.72
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Genk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 1.39 for Genk, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 53 games, going 28W 16D 9L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Genk sit at 1.66 PPG from 53 outings (25W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Union St. Gilloise on 1.89 PPG, Genk on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 15W 6D 4L across their last 25 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Genk have taken 1.40 points per game from their last 25 away games (10W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 1.57 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Genk
Blended
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs Genk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Genk Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Genk in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 16D 9L in their last 53 games (1.89 PPG), while Genk have gone 25W 13D 15L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Genk away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.04 PPG; Genk away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Genk in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Union St. Gilloise have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Nov 2024, when Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 4-0 Genk.
Union St. Gilloise's record when hosting Genk specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Union St. Gilloise
0
Draws
2
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Genk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 8, Genk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Genk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Union St. Gilloise 1-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Genk?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 64%, Genk 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Union St. Gilloise) and 48% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Genk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and Genk matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Union St. Gilloise's games and 60% of Genk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union St. Gilloise and Genk matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 48% of Genk's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Genk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 64% of Genk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union St. Gilloise run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Genk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union St. Gilloise beat Genk 4-0 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.30 xG and Genk 1.39 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Union St. Gilloise beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genk landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 0.87 / defence 0.94 against Genk attack 1.40 / defence 0.95, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 32% | Draw 32% | Genk 36%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Union St. Gilloise win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 57%, Genk 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Genk's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union St. Gilloise 1.89 PPG, Genk 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union St. Gilloise win broke the near-deadlock. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.