Charleroi 1-1 OH Leuven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs OH Leuven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus OH Leuven in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 29 July 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Charleroi haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charleroi have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade du Pays de Charleroi — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
OH Leuven (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OH Leuven haven't played a Jupiler Pro League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, OH Leuven have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Charleroi, 1.70 for OH Leuven — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
OH Leuven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 58% versus OH Leuven 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 61% | OH Leuven 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.52 xG and OH Leuven 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.973 / defence 0.974 | OH Leuven attack 1.035 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.355. Data: 33 Charleroi games / 34 OH Leuven games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 33%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | OH Leuven 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 40% | OH Leuven 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs OH Leuven | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jul 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 40% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Charleroi 1.52 / OH Leuven 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.973 / def 0.974 | OH Leuven attack 1.035 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.37
OH Leuven xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs OH Leuven kick off?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven kicked off at 17:15 on Saturday 29 July 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Charleroi 1 - 1 OH Leuven.
Where is Charleroi vs OH Leuven being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs OH Leuven part of?
Charleroi vs OH Leuven is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 40% chance of winning, OH Leuven a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Charleroi and OH Leuven will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs OH Leuven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Charleroi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charleroi's attack at 0.97x the league average against OH Leuven's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OH Leuven's attack (1.03x) against Charleroi's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.81
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.89
1.37
OH Leuven xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
7%
13.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.6 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Charleroi and OH Leuven expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.37 for OH Leuven, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs OH Leuven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 33 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 14W 6D 13L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. Charleroi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
OH Leuven's form line: 12W 9D 12L from 33 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W. OH Leuven haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Charleroi against 1.36 for OH Leuven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.44 PPG from 16 outings (7W 2D 7L).
On the road, OH Leuven have gone 5W 4D 7L from 16 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Charleroi are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; OH Leuven are on 1.64 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OH Leuven in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Pre-Season
OH Leuven
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and OH Leuven in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 14W 6D 13L in their last 33 games (1.45 PPG), while OH Leuven have gone 12W 9D 12L in their last 33 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or OH Leuven away?
Charleroi's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.44 PPG; OH Leuven away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against OH Leuven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Charleroi
4
Draws
3
OH Leuven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and OH Leuven?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 3, OH Leuven have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and OH Leuven last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Charleroi 3-1 OH Leuven.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
OH Leuven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 56%, OH Leuven 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Charleroi and 62% for OH Leuven. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / OH Leuven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play OH Leuven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Charleroi's games and 62% of OH Leuven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs OH Leuven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Charleroi's matches and 62% of OH Leuven's.
Do Charleroi and OH Leuven tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, OH Leuven in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and OH Leuven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and OH Leuven finished level at 1-1 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 1, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.52 xG and OH Leuven 1.37 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against OH Leuven attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 33/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 40% | Draw 26% | OH Leuven 33%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 61%, OH Leuven 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
OH Leuven's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.45 PPG, OH Leuven 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.