Charleroi 2-2 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs Genk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Pays de Charleroi plays host to Charleroi versus Genk in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 23 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charleroi have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genk's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Charleroi's favour (2.00 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Charleroi 0W, Genk 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 1–4 with Genk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Charleroi — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Genk — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 50% versus Genk 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 62% | Genk 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.41 xG and Genk 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.934 / defence 0.880 | Genk attack 1.129 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.311. Data: 66 Charleroi games / 67 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 28% | Genk 34%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Genk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 30% | Genk 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 39% | Draw 28% | Genk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Charleroi 1.41 / Genk 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.934 / def 0.880 | Genk attack 1.129 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Genk xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Genk kick off?
Charleroi vs Genk kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Charleroi 2 - 2 Genk.
Where is Charleroi vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Genk part of?
Charleroi vs Genk is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 39% chance of winning, Genk a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Charleroi and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
Record (1 meetings): Charleroi 0W | Draws 0 | Genk 1W.
What form are Charleroi and Genk in?
Charleroi (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Genk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.93) and Genk's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Genk's attack (1.13x) against Charleroi's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 66/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.59
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.72
1.30
Genk xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
10%
9.53
8%
12.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.30 for Genk, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 31W 15D 26L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Genk's form line: 41W 12D 19L from 72 games, 1.88 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Charleroi against 1.88 for Genk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.49 PPG from 35 outings (15W 7D 13L).
On the road, Genk have gone 15W 8D 12L from 35 away games — 1.51 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charleroi are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.10 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Current Season
Genk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Genk in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 31W 15D 26L in their last 72 games (1.50 PPG), while Genk have gone 41W 12D 19L in their last 72 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.49 PPG; Genk away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Genk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Genk in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genk won 4-1 on 4 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charleroi have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Genk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Charleroi
5
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Genk?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 2, Genk have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Charleroi 2-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 43%, Genk 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Charleroi) and 60% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Charleroi have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Charleroi's recent matches and 63% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charleroi vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Charleroi's matches and 60% of Genk's.
Do Charleroi and Genk tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Genk in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charleroi and Genk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi and Genk finished level at 2-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 34, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.41 xG and Genk 1.30 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Genk attack 1.13 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 39% | Draw 28% | Genk 34%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 62%, Genk 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Genk's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.50 PPG, Genk 1.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.