Charleroi 1-0 KVC Westerlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees KVC Westerlo travel to Stade du Pays de Charleroi to take on Charleroi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charleroi stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charleroi's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Pays de Charleroi. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Charleroi are significantly better at Stade du Pays de Charleroi than their overall form suggests.
KVC Westerlo — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KVC Westerlo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KVC Westerlo's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charleroi 0.80 PPG, KVC Westerlo 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Charleroi, 0 for KVC Westerlo and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 1–0 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
KVC Westerlo in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 47% versus KVC Westerlo 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | KVC Westerlo 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.33 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 0.789 / defence 0.969 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.140 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.035. Charleroi's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Charleroi games / 43 KVC Westerlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 34% | KVC Westerlo 28%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | KVC Westerlo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charleroi as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charleroi 20% | KVC Westerlo 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 37% | Draw 34% | KVC Westerlo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG Charleroi 1.33 / KVC Westerlo 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 0.789 / def 0.969 | KVC Westerlo attack 1.140 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.14
KVC Westerlo xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo kick off?
Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Charleroi 1 - 0 KVC Westerlo.
Where is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo part of?
Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 37% chance of winning, KVC Westerlo a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Charleroi and KVC Westerlo will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
Record (2 meetings): Charleroi 2W | Draws 0 | KVC Westerlo 0W.
What form are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo in?
Charleroi (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. KVC Westerlo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (0.79) and KVC Westerlo's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KVC Westerlo's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
37%
2.68
34%
2.92
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.47
1.14
KVC Westerlo xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.14 for KVC Westerlo, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charleroi's recent record stands at 16W 11D 22L from 49 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KVC Westerlo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 14D 21L across 49 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for KVC Westerlo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charleroi on 1.20 PPG, KVC Westerlo on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charleroi have managed 11W 6D 7L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Charleroi are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
KVC Westerlo's away record stands at 6W 7D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; KVC Westerlo are on 1.59 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KVC Westerlo in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Blended
KVC Westerlo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and KVC Westerlo in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 games (1.20 PPG), while KVC Westerlo have gone 14W 14D 21L in their last 49 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or KVC Westerlo away?
Charleroi's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.62 PPG; KVC Westerlo away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
KVC Westerlo have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Charleroi's record when hosting KVC Westerlo specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Charleroi
1
Draws
3
KVC Westerlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 6, KVC Westerlo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and KVC Westerlo last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Charleroi 0-1 KVC Westerlo.
Who has won more matches between Charleroi and KVC Westerlo?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 54%, KVC Westerlo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charleroi) and 71% (KVC Westerlo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / KVC Westerlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play KVC Westerlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Charleroi's games and 67% of KVC Westerlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs KVC Westerlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Charleroi's matches and 71% of KVC Westerlo's.
Do Charleroi and KVC Westerlo tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, KVC Westerlo in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out KVC Westerlo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat KVC Westerlo 1-0 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 14, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.33 xG and KVC Westerlo 1.14 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KVC Westerlo landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 0.79 / defence 0.97 against KVC Westerlo attack 1.14 / defence 1.08, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 37% | Draw 34% | KVC Westerlo 28%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, KVC Westerlo 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charleroi 1.20 PPG, KVC Westerlo 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.