Lommel United 1-2 SK Beveren – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SK Beveren at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lommel United vs SK Beveren encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host SK Beveren at Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 1W 4D 5L at Soeverein Stadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Lommel United are significantly better at Soeverein Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SK Beveren have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour SK Beveren — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lommel United, 2 for SK Beveren and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with SK Beveren winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 63% versus SK Beveren 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 59% | SK Beveren 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.03 xG and SK Beveren 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.736 / defence 1.134 | SK Beveren attack 0.886 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.350. Lommel United's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Lommel United games / 51 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 28% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 44%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | SK Beveren 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 70% | SK Beveren 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs SK Beveren | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 28% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Lommel United 1.03 / SK Beveren 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.736 / def 1.134 | SK Beveren attack 0.886 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.36
SK Beveren xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs SK Beveren kick off?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Lommel United 1 - 2 SK Beveren.
Where is Lommel United vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs SK Beveren part of?
Lommel United vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 28% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lommel United and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
Record (7 meetings): Lommel United 2W | Draws 3 | SK Beveren 2W.
What form are Lommel United and SK Beveren in?
Lommel United (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.74x the league average against SK Beveren's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
28%
3.56
28%
3.56
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.39
1.36
SK Beveren xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
7%
13.81
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lommel United and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.36 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs SK Beveren?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lommel United come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 14D 20L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SK Beveren sit at 1.51 PPG from 51 outings (21W 14D 16L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.27 PPG, SK Beveren on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lommel United's home form reads 8W 8D 9L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, SK Beveren have taken 1.36 points per game from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lommel United are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 1.35 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
SK Beveren
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 17W 14D 20L in their last 51 games (1.27 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 21W 14D 16L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.28 PPG; SK Beveren away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Lommel United or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Lommel United's record when hosting SK Beveren specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lommel United
4
Draws
4
SK Beveren
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 2, SK Beveren have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and SK Beveren last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when SK Beveren 2-0 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and SK Beveren?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 56%, SK Beveren 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lommel United) and 48% (SK Beveren).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren in 44%; Lommel United have failed to score in 28% of games; SK Beveren in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play SK Beveren?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lommel United's recent matches and 36% of SK Beveren's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lommel United's recent games and 48% of SK Beveren's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and SK Beveren tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out Lommel United 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Lommel United 1-2 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.03 xG and SK Beveren 1.36 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.74 / defence 1.13 against SK Beveren attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 28% | Draw 28% | SK Beveren 44%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 59%, SK Beveren 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SK Beveren's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.27 PPG, SK Beveren 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. Lommel United (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.