Wolfsberger AC 1-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lavanttal-Arena plays host to Wolfsberger AC versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 24 August 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lavanttal-Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rapid Vienna in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 3W, Rapid Vienna 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 1–0 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 57% versus Rapid Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 57% | Rapid Vienna 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.47 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.060 / defence 0.969 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.062 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.230. Data: 25 Wolfsberger AC games / 25 Rapid Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 41% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 32%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Rapid Vienna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Rapid Vienna 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 41% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.47 / Rapid Vienna 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.060 / def 0.969 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.062 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Rapid Vienna xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 41% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
Record (7 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 2 | Rapid Vienna 2W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.06x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (1.06x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.74
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.73
1.26
Rapid Vienna xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
7%
13.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.26 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 18W 7D 10L from 35 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 13L across 35 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.43 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 8W 3D 6L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 3W 5D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rapid Vienna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.37 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 games (1.74 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 14W 8D 13L in their last 35 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.59 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Rapid Vienna go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wolfsberger AC won 5-1 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 0-3 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 59% for Wolfsberger AC, 76% for Rapid Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Wolfsberger AC and 65% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 76% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 65% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rapid Vienna defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Wolfsberger AC 1-2 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.47 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.26 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 41% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 32%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rapid Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 57%, Rapid Vienna 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.74 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.