TSV Hartberg 2-1 FC BW Linz – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs FC BW Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

FC BW Linz make the trip to PROfertil ARENA to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC BW Linz (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC BW Linz have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.40 for FC BW Linz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, FC BW Linz in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — TSV Hartberg lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 3–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

FC BW Linz half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 60% versus FC BW Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 62% | FC BW Linz 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.70 xG and FC BW Linz 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.877 / defence 0.812 | FC BW Linz attack 0.969 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.210. FC BW Linz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 TSV Hartberg games / 32 FC BW Linz games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 55% | Draw 24% | FC BW Linz 21%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | FC BW Linz 4.76. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | FC BW Linz 60% BTTS from recent games.

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