SCR Altach 2-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at Cashpoint-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 3W 5D 2L at Cashpoint-Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to TSV Hartberg, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 0–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 45% versus TSV Hartberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 36% | TSV Hartberg 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.99 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.768 / defence 0.839 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.379. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 SCR Altach games / 32 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 31% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 40%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 40% | TSV Hartberg 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 31% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG SCR Altach 0.99 / TSV Hartberg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.768 / def 0.839 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.002 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.16
TSV Hartberg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach 2 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg part of?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 31% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
Record (7 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 3 | TSV Hartberg 4W.
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.00x) against SCR Altach's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
31%
3.22
29%
3.40
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.15
1.16
TSV Hartberg xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.5 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.16 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 8W 15D 19L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 14W 14D 14L from 42 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, TSV Hartberg are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 1.05 PPG from 21 outings (4W 10D 7L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 7D 7L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.26 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 15D 19L in their last 42 games (0.93 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 14W 14D 14L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.05 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
5
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when SCR Altach 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 52%, TSV Hartberg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (SCR Altach) and 43% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 43%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 29% of games; TSV Hartberg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 38% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of SCR Altach's recent games and 43% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg finished level at 2-2 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.99 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.16 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.77 / defence 0.84 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 31% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 40%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 36%, TSV Hartberg 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.