Lask Linz 0-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Red Bull Salzburg travel to Raiffeisen Arena to take on Lask Linz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz at Raiffeisen Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lask Linz are significantly better at Raiffeisen Arena than their overall form suggests.
Red Bull Salzburg — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Lask Linz, 0 for Red Bull Salzburg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Lask Linz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 57% versus Red Bull Salzburg 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 42% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.01 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.931 / defence 0.938 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.176 / defence 0.801. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.071. Data: 43 Lask Linz games / 43 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 31% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 30% | Red Bull Salzburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 31% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Lask Linz 1.01 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.931 / def 0.938 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.176 / def 0.801 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Red Bull Salzburg xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Lask Linz 0 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 31% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (1 meetings): Lask Linz 1W | Draws 0 | Red Bull Salzburg 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
31%
3.22
29%
3.40
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.19
1.18
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.18 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lask Linz come into this having played 53 games, going 23W 20D 10L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 2.34 PPG from 53 outings (37W 13D 3L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lask Linz's home form reads 15W 6D 5L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 2.42 points per game from 26 outings (19W 6D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lask Linz are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.09 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 23W 20D 10L in their last 53 games (1.68 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 37W 13D 3L in their last 53 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.96 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.42 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lask Linz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
0
Draws
5
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Lask Linz 2-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 54%, Red Bull Salzburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lask Linz) and 54% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Lask Linz's recent games and 54% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out Lask Linz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Lask Linz 0-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.01 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.18 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lask Linz fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.18 / defence 0.80, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 31% | Draw 29% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 42%, Red Bull Salzburg 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.68. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.