Austria Vienna 2-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Austria Vienna (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Austria Vienna face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees WSG Wattens travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 March 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Generali Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Austria Vienna, 0 for WSG Wattens and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Austria Vienna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 57% versus WSG Wattens 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 66% | WSG Wattens 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.81 xG and WSG Wattens 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.085 / defence 0.844 | WSG Wattens attack 0.903 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.067. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Austria Vienna games / 43 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 61% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 16%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | WSG Wattens 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 30% | WSG Wattens 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Mar 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 61% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Austria Vienna 1.81 / WSG Wattens 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.085 / def 0.844 | WSG Wattens attack 0.903 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.81
WSG Wattens xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Austria Vienna 2 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens part of?
Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 61% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 16% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Vienna 2W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against WSG Wattens's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
61%
1.64
23%
4.43
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.62
0.81
WSG Wattens xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
16%
6.12
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
3%
37.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.7 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.81 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Vienna come into this having played 53 games, going 20W 16D 17L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, WSG Wattens sit at 0.98 PPG from 53 outings (14W 10D 29L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Vienna's home form reads 12W 8D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, WSG Wattens have taken 1.04 points per game from 26 outings (8W 3D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.21 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 20W 16D 17L in their last 53 games (1.43 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 14W 10D 29L in their last 53 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or WSG Wattens away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.69 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
1
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 7, WSG Wattens have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Austria Vienna 0-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 50%, WSG Wattens 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Austria Vienna and 58% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 27% of games; WSG Wattens in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 54% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Austria Vienna's matches and 58% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Austria Vienna and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat WSG Wattens 2-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.81 xG and WSG Wattens 0.81 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 0.84 against WSG Wattens attack 0.90 / defence 1.25, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 61% | Draw 23% | WSG Wattens 16%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 66%, WSG Wattens 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.