Khorfakkan 2-1 Emirates Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Khorfakkan at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium plays host to Khorfakkan versus Emirates Club in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Wednesday 29 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khorfakkan have collected 1.00 PPG across 5 Pro League outings this season: 1W 2D 2L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khorfakkan have posted 1W 1D 1L at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
Emirates Club (all games): 0W 1D 4L across 5 Pro League outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Emirates Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Khorfakkan's favour (1.00 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Emirates Club half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 40% versus Emirates Club 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 60% | Emirates Club 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.51 xG and Emirates Club 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 1.001 / defence 1.050 | Emirates Club attack 0.880 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.093 / away 1.117. Emirates Club bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Khorfakkan's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Khorfakkan games / 5 Emirates Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 45% | Draw 32% | Emirates Club 23%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Emirates Club 4.35. Khorfakkan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khorfakkan are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Khorfakkan 33% | Emirates Club 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 45% | Draw 32% | Emirates Club 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Khorfakkan 1.51 / Emirates Club 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 1.001 / def 1.050 | Emirates Club attack 0.880 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.093 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Emirates Club xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club?
Khorfakkan 2 - 1 Emirates Club.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club part of?
Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 45% chance of winning, Emirates Club a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Khorfakkan and Emirates Club will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Emirates Club?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Khorfakkan and Emirates Club in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Emirates Club (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Khorfakkan's attack at 1.00x the league average against Emirates Club's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emirates Club's attack (0.88x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
45%
2.21
32%
3.16
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.54
1.03
Emirates Club xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
19.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Emirates Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.03 for Emirates Club, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 2D 2L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Emirates Club's form line: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games, 0.20 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Emirates Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Khorfakkan are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Emirates Club.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Emirates Club are on 0.60 scored and 2.20 conceded.
Defensively: Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Early Season
Emirates Club
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Emirates Club in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Emirates Club have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
Have Khorfakkan or Emirates Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Emirates Club in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Emirates Club go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Emirates Club — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Khorfakkan
0
Draws
3
Emirates Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Emirates Club?
From 4 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 1, Emirates Club have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Emirates Club last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2024, when Emirates Club 2-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Emirates Club?
Emirates Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Emirates Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 40%, Emirates Club 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Khorfakkan) and 40% (Emirates Club).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 40% of games; Emirates Club in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Emirates Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Emirates Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 40% of Emirates Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Emirates Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 40% of Emirates Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Emirates Club tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Emirates Club in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Khorfakkan edge out Emirates Club 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khorfakkan beat Emirates Club 2-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.51 xG and Emirates Club 1.03 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 1.00 / defence 1.05 against Emirates Club attack 0.88 / defence 1.38, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 45% | Draw 32% | Emirates Club 23%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 60%, Emirates Club 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Emirates Club's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Khorfakkan arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Khorfakkan scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.