Khorfakkan 0-1 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khorfakkan at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC meet at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 10 February 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Khorfakkan have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium this season: 3W 1D 3L from 7 home games — 1.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Wasl FC (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Khorfakkan, 1.30 for Al-Wasl FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Khorfakkan, 0 for Al-Wasl FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Khorfakkan half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khorfakkan 57% versus Al-Wasl FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khorfakkan 71% | Al-Wasl FC 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khorfakkan 1.26 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khorfakkan attack 0.876 / defence 1.131 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.868 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.232. Data: 14 Khorfakkan games / 14 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 30% | Al-Wasl FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Khorfakkan 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Wasl FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Khorfakkan are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Khorfakkan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Khorfakkan 43% | Al-Wasl FC 57%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 10 Feb 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 30% | Al-Wasl FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Khorfakkan 1.26 / Al-Wasl FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Khorfakkan attack 0.876 / def 1.131 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.868 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Khorfakkan (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Khorfakkan xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Al-Wasl FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 13:30 on Thursday 10 February 2022 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What was the final score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Khorfakkan 0 - 1 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium.
What competition is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Khorfakkan a 37% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Khorfakkan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
Record (1 meetings): Khorfakkan 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Wasl FC 0W.
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC in?
Khorfakkan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Khorfakkan's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Al-Wasl FC's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Al-Wasl FC's attack (0.87x) against Khorfakkan's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khorfakkan Win
37%
2.74
30%
3.39
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Khorfakkan xG
Total xG
2.47
1.21
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Khorfakkan and 1.21 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Khorfakkan have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 4W 3D 7L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 4W 6D 4L from 14 games, 1.29 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-D. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Khorfakkan against 1.29 for Al-Wasl FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Khorfakkan have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 3D 2L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Khorfakkan are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.29 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khorfakkan
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Khorfakkan have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khorfakkan at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Khorfakkan's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khorfakkan at home: 1.43 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Khorfakkan or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khorfakkan have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 1-5 on 11 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Khorfakkan have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Wasl FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Khorfakkan
3
Draws
4
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Khorfakkan have won 3, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2026, when Al-Wasl FC 0-1 Khorfakkan.
Who has won more matches between Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khorfakkan 43%, Al-Wasl FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Khorfakkan) and 43% (Al-Wasl FC).
On the defensive side: Khorfakkan keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC in 43%; Khorfakkan have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khorfakkan home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khorfakkan play Al-Wasl FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Khorfakkan's recent matches and 57% of Al-Wasl FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Khorfakkan vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Khorfakkan's recent games and 43% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khorfakkan and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Khorfakkan have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Wasl FC defy the odds to beat Khorfakkan 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Wasl FC beat Khorfakkan 0-1 at Saqr bin Mohammad al Qassimi Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khorfakkan 1.26 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Khorfakkan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khorfakkan attack 0.88 / defence 1.13 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.18, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khorfakkan 37% | Draw 30% | Al-Wasl FC 34%, with Khorfakkan to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Wasl FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khorfakkan 71%, Al-Wasl FC 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khorfakkan's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khorfakkan 1.07 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Wasl FC win broke the near-deadlock. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.