Al-Wasl FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Wasl FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Zabeel Stadium plays host to Al-Wasl FC versus Al-Ittihad Kalba in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 5 March 2022 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Wasl FC's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Wasl FC's home record at Zabeel Stadium: 2W 4D 2L from 8 Pro League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 8 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Zabeel Stadium.
Al-Ittihad Kalba have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 2W 2D 3L from 7 road trips in Pro League this season (1.14 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Al-Wasl FC half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Al-Ittihad Kalba half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Wasl FC 50% versus Al-Ittihad Kalba 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Wasl FC 38% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Wasl FC 1.29 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.835 / defence 0.886 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.045 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.180. Al-Ittihad Kalba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing Al-Wasl FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Al-Wasl FC games / 16 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Wasl FC 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Wasl FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Wasl FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Wasl FC 38% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 57%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Zabeel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Wasl FC 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Al-Wasl FC 1.29 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Wasl FC attack 0.835 / def 0.886 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.045 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Al-Wasl FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Al-Wasl FC xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Zabeel Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Wasl FC 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Zabeel Stadium.
What competition is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Al-Wasl FC a 41% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Wasl FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Wasl FC's attack rating (0.83) and Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (1.04x) against Al-Wasl FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 17/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Wasl FC Win
41%
2.47
28%
3.52
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Al-Wasl FC xG
Total xG
2.38
1.09
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
9%
11.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Al-Wasl FC and 1.09 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Wasl FC come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 7D 5L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad Kalba sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad Kalba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Al-Wasl FC against 1.12 for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Wasl FC's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Wasl FC are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.06 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Wasl FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Al-Wasl FC's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Wasl FC at home: 1.29 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Al-Wasl FC or Al-Ittihad Kalba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Wasl FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Al-Wasl FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Wasl FC won 0-3 on 21 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Wasl FC
6
Draws
0
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Wasl FC have won 4, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 0-3 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Wasl FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Wasl FC 29%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Al-Wasl FC) and 43% (Al-Ittihad Kalba).
On the defensive side: Al-Wasl FC keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Wasl FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Wasl FC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Al-Wasl FC's recent matches and 57% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Wasl FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Al-Wasl FC's recent games and 43% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Al-Wasl FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Zabeel Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Al-Wasl FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Wasl FC 1.29 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.09 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Wasl FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.89 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.04 / defence 1.35, drawn from 17/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Wasl FC 41% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 31%, with Al-Wasl FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Wasl FC 38%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Wasl FC 1.19 PPG, Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.