Al Wahda FC 0-0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Al Wahda FC take on Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Shabab Al Ahli Dubai travel to Al Nahyan Stadium to take on Al Wahda FC. The game is scheduled for Thursday 23 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Wahda FC stand at 1W 3D 0L from 4 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Pro League games this season, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have recorded 3W 1D 0L from 4 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's 2.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al Wahda FC's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Al Wahda FC in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 50% versus Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Wahda FC 25% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.04 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 0.908 / defence 1.123 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.783 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.099. Data: 4 Al Wahda FC games / 4 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 33% | Draw 39% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 3.03 | Draw 2.56 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 3.45. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Al Wahda FC 50% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 33% | Draw 39% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.04 / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 0.908 / def 1.123 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.783 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 23 September 2021 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Al Wahda FC 0 - 0 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 33% chance of winning, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 29% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-D-D. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Wahda FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attack versus Al Wahda FC's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
39%
2.57
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
2.01
0.97
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 0.97 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Wahda FC's recent record stands at 1W 3D 0L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 0L across 4 games — 2.50 PPG, with W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Wahda FC heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are on 1.75 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
Have Al Wahda FC or Shabab Al Ahli Dubai been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al Wahda FC's record when hosting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai specifically: 0W 5D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Wahda FC
6
Draws
3
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 1, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1-1 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Wahda FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 50%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Al Wahda FC and 25% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
On the defensive side: Al Wahda FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Shabab Al Ahli Dubai away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Shabab Al Ahli Dubai?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Wahda FC's recent matches and 50% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Al Wahda FC's recent games and 25% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Wahda FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Al Wahda FC and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.04 xG and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 0.97 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Wahda FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 0.78 / defence 0.99, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 33% | Draw 39% | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 25%, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Wahda FC managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.