Al Wahda FC 1-0 Hatta SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Wahda FC at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Wahda FC and Hatta SC meet at Al Nahyan Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 14:20 UTC.
Current Form
Al Wahda FC's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Wahda FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Al Nahyan Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Nahyan Stadium this season.
Hatta SC have collected 0.00 PPG across 2 Pro League outings this season: 0W 0D 2L. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Hatta SC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Al Wahda FC. A 1.80 PPG lead over Hatta SC (1.80 vs 0.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.73 xG and Hatta SC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 0.946 / defence 0.969 | Hatta SC attack 0.783 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.499 / away 1.731. Hatta SC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Al Wahda FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Al Wahda FC games / 2 Hatta SC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 47% | Draw 24% | Hatta SC 29%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Hatta SC 3.45. Al Wahda FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Wahda FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Wahda FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 14:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 47% | Draw 24% | Hatta SC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.73 / Hatta SC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 0.946 / def 0.969 | Hatta SC attack 0.783 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.499 / away 1.731 • Poisson stance: Al Wahda FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Hatta SC xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC kicked off at 14:20 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC?
Al Wahda FC 1 - 0 Hatta SC.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 47% chance of winning, Hatta SC a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Wahda FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Hatta SC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Hatta SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Hatta SC in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Hatta SC (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Wahda FC's attack at 0.95x the league average against Hatta SC's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hatta SC's attack (0.78x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
The sample (28/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Wahda FC Win
47%
2.12
24%
4.25
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.04
1.31
Hatta SC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
5%
19.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Hatta SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.31 for Hatta SC, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Wahda FC come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hatta SC sit at 0.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 0D 2L), a run that reads L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hatta SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Wahda FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Hatta SC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hatta SC are on 0.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Early Season
Hatta SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Hatta SC in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Hatta SC have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al Wahda FC
0
Draws
0
Hatta SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Hatta SC?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 2, Hatta SC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Hatta SC last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2024, when Hatta SC 0-4 Al Wahda FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Hatta SC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Hatta SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Hatta SC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al Wahda FC's games and 50% of Hatta SC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Hatta SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 50% of Hatta SC's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Hatta SC tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hatta SC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Wahda FC edge out Hatta SC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Hatta SC 1-0 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.73 xG and Hatta SC 1.31 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hatta SC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Hatta SC attack 0.78 / defence 1.22, drawn from 28/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 47% | Draw 24% | Hatta SC 29%, with Al Wahda FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 100%, Hatta SC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Wahda FC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Al Wahda FC conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Hatta SC conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.