Al Wahda FC 3-1 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Nahyan Stadium plays host to Al Wahda FC versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Wahda FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's home record at Al Nahyan Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Jazira have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Al Wahda FC 2W, Al-Jazira 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Wahda FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wahda FC 56% versus Al-Jazira 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 58% | Al-Jazira 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.34 xG and Al-Jazira 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 0.932 / defence 0.967 | Al-Jazira attack 1.207 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.439. Al-Jazira have an above-average attack strength of 1.207 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Al Wahda FC games / 48 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 31% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 45%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Jazira 2.22. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 50% | Al-Jazira 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 31% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.34 / Al-Jazira 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 0.932 / def 0.967 | Al-Jazira attack 1.207 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al-Jazira xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 1 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 31% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
Record (3 meetings): Al Wahda FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al-Jazira 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (0.93) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (1.21x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
31%
3.25
24%
4.20
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.68
Al-Jazira xG
3.25
31%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
19%
5.36
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
6%
17.42
12%
8.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.68 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 27W 14D 7L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 26W 7D 15L from 48 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for Al Wahda FC against 1.77 for Al-Jazira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 1.71 PPG from 24 outings (11W 8D 5L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 9W 5D 10L from 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al-Jazira's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 1.77 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira in 60%.
Defensively: Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 27W 14D 7L in their last 48 games (1.98 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 26W 7D 15L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al Wahda FC's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.71 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 6, Al-Jazira have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wahda FC 54%, Al-Jazira 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Al Wahda FC and 62% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al Wahda FC's games and 67% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 62% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Wahda FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Jazira.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Jazira 3-1 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.34 xG and Al-Jazira 1.68 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Al-Jazira attack 1.21 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 31% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 45%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Al Wahda FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 58%, Al-Jazira 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.98 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.