Al Wahda FC 3-2 Al-Jazira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Nahyan Stadium plays host to Al Wahda FC versus Al-Jazira in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Wahda FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's home record at Al Nahyan Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Jazira have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Wahda FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Jazira in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Al Wahda FC are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Al Wahda FC winning.
The historical record gives Al Wahda FC a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Wahda FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Al-Jazira goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Wahda FC 59% and Al-Jazira 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wahda FC 56% | Al-Jazira 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wahda FC 1.55 xG and Al-Jazira 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wahda FC attack 1.042 / defence 0.894 | Al-Jazira attack 1.166 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.591. Data: 40 Al Wahda FC games / 39 Al-Jazira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Wahda FC 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Jazira 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Jazira are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Wahda FC 70% | Al-Jazira 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al Nahyan Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wahda FC 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Wahda FC 1.55 / Al-Jazira 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wahda FC attack 1.042 / def 0.894 | Al-Jazira attack 1.166 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.591 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al Wahda FC xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Al-Jazira xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira kick off?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Al Wahda FC 3 - 2 Al-Jazira.
Where is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira being played?
The match is being played at Al Nahyan Stadium.
What competition is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira part of?
Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our statistical model gives Al Wahda FC a 36% chance of winning, Al-Jazira a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
Record (5 meetings): Al Wahda FC 4W | Draws 1 | Al-Jazira 0W.
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira in?
Al Wahda FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Al-Jazira (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Wahda FC's attack rating (1.04) and Al-Jazira's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Jazira's attack (1.17x) against Al Wahda FC's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
36%
2.79
24%
4.23
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al Wahda FC xG
Total xG
3.21
1.66
Al-Jazira xG
2.79
36%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
19%
5.25
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.65
9%
11.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al Wahda FC and 1.66 for Al-Jazira, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Al Wahda FC have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 22W 9D 8L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Jazira's form line: 20W 6D 13L from 39 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.92 PPG for Al Wahda FC against 1.69 for Al-Jazira. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Wahda FC have posted 1.72 PPG from 18 outings (8W 7D 3L).
On the road, Al-Jazira have gone 10W 2D 6L from 18 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Wahda FC are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Jazira are on 2.00 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira in 74%.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wahda FC
Blended
Al-Jazira
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira in coming into this match?
Al Wahda FC have gone 22W 9D 8L in their last 39 games (1.92 PPG), while Al-Jazira have gone 20W 6D 13L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wahda FC at home or Al-Jazira away?
Al-Jazira's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wahda FC at home: 1.72 PPG; Al-Jazira away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Al Wahda FC or Al-Jazira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wahda FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al-Jazira in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Wahda FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Jazira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al Wahda FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Jazira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Wahda FC have won 6, Al-Jazira have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Al Wahda FC, 78% for Al-Jazira — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al Wahda FC and 72% for Al-Jazira. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wahda FC home games / Al-Jazira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wahda FC play Al-Jazira?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al Wahda FC's games and 78% of Al-Jazira's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Wahda FC vs Al-Jazira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al Wahda FC's matches and 72% of Al-Jazira's.
Do Al Wahda FC and Al-Jazira tend to score early?
Al Wahda FC have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al-Jazira in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wahda FC defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Jazira 3-2 at Al Nahyan Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wahda FC 1.55 xG and Al-Jazira 1.66 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al Wahda FC beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wahda FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.89 against Al-Jazira attack 1.17 / defence 0.97, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wahda FC 36% | Draw 24% | Al-Jazira 40%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al Wahda FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wahda FC 56%, Al-Jazira 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (39 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Jazira's trading profile (39 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Wahda FC 1.92 PPG, Al-Jazira 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al Wahda FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.