Al Nasr 1-0 Ajman – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Nasr at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Nasr vs Ajman encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Maktoum Stadium plays host to Al Nasr versus Ajman in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 24 August 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Al Nasr (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Nasr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Nasr have posted 5W 1D 4L at Al Maktoum Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajman have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ajman have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Ajman have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Al Nasr. A 0.60 PPG lead over Ajman (1.50 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Nasr lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Ajman winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Al Nasr goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Ajman goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Nasr 67% and Ajman 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Nasr 67% | Ajman 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Nasr 1.45 xG and Ajman 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Nasr attack 0.971 / defence 0.999 | Ajman attack 0.893 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.355. Data: 27 Al Nasr games / 27 Ajman games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al Nasr 43% | Draw 26% | Ajman 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Nasr 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Ajman 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Nasr are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Nasr if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Al Nasr 70% | Ajman 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Nasr vs Ajman | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Al Maktoum Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Nasr 43% | Draw 26% | Ajman 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Nasr 1.45 / Ajman 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Al Nasr attack 0.971 / def 0.999 | Ajman attack 0.893 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Al Nasr (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al Nasr xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Ajman xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Nasr vs Ajman kick off?
Al Nasr vs Ajman kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Al Nasr 1 - 0 Ajman.
Where is Al Nasr vs Ajman being played?
The match is being played at Al Maktoum Stadium.
What competition is Al Nasr vs Ajman part of?
Al Nasr vs Ajman is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Our statistical model gives Al Nasr a 43% chance of winning, Ajman a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Nasr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Nasr and Ajman will score (BTTS).
Will Al Nasr vs Ajman have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Ajman?
Record (7 meetings): Al Nasr 3W | Draws 1 | Ajman 3W.
What form are Al Nasr and Ajman in?
Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Ajman (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Nasr's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Ajman's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Ajman's attack (0.89x) against Al Nasr's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Nasr Win
43%
2.35
26%
3.87
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al Nasr xG
Total xG
2.65
1.21
Ajman xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.87
7%
13.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Al Nasr and Ajman expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al Nasr and 1.21 for Ajman, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Nasr vs Ajman?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Al Nasr have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 12W 5D 10L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Nasr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ajman's form line: 9W 4D 14L from 27 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ajman, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Al Nasr against 1.15 for Ajman. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al Nasr have posted 1.77 PPG from 13 outings (7W 2D 4L).
On the road, Ajman have gone 3W 2D 8L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Nasr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Nasr are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Ajman are on 1.48 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Nasr have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Nasr
Early Season
Ajman
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Nasr and Ajman in coming into this match?
Al Nasr have gone 12W 5D 10L in their last 27 games (1.52 PPG), while Ajman have gone 9W 4D 14L in their last 27 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Nasr at home or Ajman away?
Al Nasr's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Nasr at home: 1.77 PPG; Ajman away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since February 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ajman won 4-1 on 4 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Nasr have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ajman — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al Nasr
2
Draws
4
Ajman
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Nasr and Ajman?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Nasr have won 4, Ajman have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Nasr and Ajman last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Al Nasr 1-2 Ajman.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Ajman are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Nasr 69%, Ajman 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al Nasr) and 46% (Ajman).
On the defensive side: Ajman in 31%; Al Nasr have failed to score in 31% of games; Ajman in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Nasr home games / Ajman away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Nasr play Ajman?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Al Nasr's recent matches and 38% of Ajman's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Nasr vs Ajman usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al Nasr's recent games and 46% of Ajman's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Nasr and Ajman tend to score early?
Al Nasr have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Ajman in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Nasr edge out Ajman 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Nasr beat Ajman 1-0 at Al Maktoum Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Nasr 1.45 xG and Ajman 1.21 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ajman landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Nasr attack 0.97 / defence 1.00 against Ajman attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al Nasr 43% | Draw 26% | Ajman 32%, with Al Nasr to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Nasr 67%, Ajman 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Nasr's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajman's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Nasr 1.52 PPG, Ajman 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Nasr win broke the near-deadlock. Al Nasr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Ajman (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.