Al-Jazira 4-2 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Jazira at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Jazira host Khorfakkan at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al-Jazira have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Al-Jazira have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Khorfakkan have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khorfakkan have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Khorfakkan's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Jazira have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Al-Jazira have won 2, Khorfakkan 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 61%.
Khorfakkan in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Jazira 74% and Khorfakkan 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Jazira 68% | Khorfakkan 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 2.49 xG and Khorfakkan 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.078 / defence 0.809 | Khorfakkan attack 1.122 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.902 / away 1.754. Khorfakkan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Al-Jazira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Al-Jazira games / 31 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 57% | Draw 19% | Khorfakkan 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 1.75 | Draw 5.26 | Khorfakkan 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Al-Jazira (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 70% | Khorfakkan 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 57% | Draw 19% | Khorfakkan 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 73% | xG Al-Jazira 2.49 / Khorfakkan 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.078 / def 0.809 | Khorfakkan attack 1.122 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.902 / away 1.754 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (57%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Khorfakkan xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Al-Jazira 4 - 2 Khorfakkan.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan part of?
Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 57% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 24% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Jazira 2W | Draws 2 | Khorfakkan 2W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Jazira's attack rating (1.08) and Khorfakkan's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Khorfakkan's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.6%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
57%
1.74
19%
5.32
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
4.08
1.59
Khorfakkan xG
1.74
57%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.71
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
8%
12.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.57
2%
50.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.59 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 12W 8D 11L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Jazira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khorfakkan's form line: 8W 6D 17L from 31 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Khorfakkan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Jazira are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khorfakkan.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (7W 4D 4L).
On the road, Khorfakkan have gone 3W 4D 8L from 15 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.39 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Jazira have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 71%.
Last 31 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Early Season
Khorfakkan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 12W 8D 11L in their last 31 games (1.42 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 8W 6D 17L in their last 31 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Khorfakkan away?
Al-Jazira's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 1.67 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2021, when Al-Jazira won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Khorfakkan specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
4
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 4, Khorfakkan have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Al-Jazira 3-1 Khorfakkan.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Jazira at 80%, Khorfakkan at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Jazira and 73% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Jazira's games and 80% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Jazira's matches and 73% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Al-Jazira and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Jazira cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Khorfakkan 4-2 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 2.49 xG and Khorfakkan 1.59 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.08 / defence 0.81 against Khorfakkan attack 1.12 / defence 1.21, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 57% | Draw 19% | Khorfakkan 24%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 68%, Khorfakkan 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Jazira arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.97. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.