Al-Jazira 3-2 Al-Wasl FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Jazira host Al-Wasl FC at Sheikh Zayed Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 11 January 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Jazira — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sheikh Zayed Sports City, Al-Jazira have gone 6W 0D 1L this season (7 games, 2.57 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sheikh Zayed Sports City. Their home PPG of 2.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Sheikh Zayed Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Wasl FC have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Wasl FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Wasl FC have posted 2W 3D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al-Jazira 1.60 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Al-Jazira in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 58% versus Al-Wasl FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 58% | Al-Wasl FC 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.50 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.176 / defence 1.155 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.793 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.227. Data: 12 Al-Jazira games / 12 Al-Wasl FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 44% | Draw 30% | Al-Wasl FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Al-Wasl FC 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Jazira at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Jazira 43% | Al-Wasl FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sheikh Zayed Sports City • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Jan 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 44% | Draw 30% | Al-Wasl FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Jazira 1.50 / Al-Wasl FC 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.176 / def 1.155 | Al-Wasl FC attack 0.793 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Wasl FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC kicked off at 15:30 on Tuesday 11 January 2022 at Sheikh Zayed Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Jazira 3 - 2 Al-Wasl FC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC being played?
The match is being played at Sheikh Zayed Sports City.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 44% chance of winning, Al-Wasl FC a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Al-Wasl FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 1.18x the league average against Al-Wasl FC's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Wasl FC's attack versus Al-Jazira's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.32
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
2.62
1.12
Al-Wasl FC xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
6%
17.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.12 for Al-Wasl FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 6W 2D 4L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Wasl FC's form line: 4W 5D 3L from 12 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Wasl FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Jazira on 1.67 PPG, Al-Wasl FC on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 2.50 PPG from 6 outings (5W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al-Wasl FC have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al-Wasl FC are on 1.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Al-Wasl FC in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al-Wasl FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Wasl FC have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al-Wasl FC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.50 PPG; Al-Wasl FC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Al-Wasl FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Wasl FC in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Wasl FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Apr 2025, when Al-Wasl FC won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Jazira's record when hosting Al-Wasl FC specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Al-Jazira
2
Draws
5
Al-Wasl FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 3, Al-Wasl FC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al-Jazira 1-2 Al-Wasl FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC?
Al-Wasl FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al-Wasl FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 50%, Al-Wasl FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Jazira) and 33% (Al-Wasl FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al-Wasl FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al-Wasl FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al-Wasl FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Jazira's recent matches and 50% of Al-Wasl FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al-Wasl FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Jazira's recent games and 33% of Al-Wasl FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Jazira and Al-Wasl FC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Wasl FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Jazira edge out Al-Wasl FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Jazira beat Al-Wasl FC 3-2 at Sheikh Zayed Sports City, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.50 xG and Al-Wasl FC 1.12 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Jazira beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Wasl FC outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.18 / defence 1.16 against Al-Wasl FC attack 0.79 / defence 1.03, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 44% | Draw 30% | Al-Wasl FC 26%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 58%, Al-Wasl FC 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Wasl FC's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.67 PPG, Al-Wasl FC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Jazira win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Wasl FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.