Al-Jazira 1-2 Al Wahda FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Jazira at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC meet at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 May 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Jazira's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Jazira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Jazira have posted 9W 0D 1L at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Al-Jazira are significantly better at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Wahda FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Wahda FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Wahda FC's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Al-Jazira against 2.20 for Al Wahda FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Al-Jazira, 0 for Al Wahda FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Jazira half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al Wahda FC half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Jazira 50% versus Al Wahda FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Jazira 62% | Al Wahda FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Jazira 1.83 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Jazira attack 1.282 / defence 1.002 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.151 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.299. Al-Jazira carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 24 Al-Jazira games / 24 Al Wahda FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 23% | Al Wahda FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Al-Jazira 2.17 | Draw 4.35 | Al Wahda FC 3.12. Al-Jazira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Jazira as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Jazira if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Jazira 50% | Al Wahda FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 23% | Al Wahda FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Jazira 1.83 / Al Wahda FC 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Jazira attack 1.282 / def 1.002 | Al Wahda FC attack 1.151 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Al-Jazira (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Al-Jazira xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Al Wahda FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC kick off?
Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC?
Al-Jazira 1 - 2 Al Wahda FC.
Where is Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC being played?
The match is being played at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium.
What competition is Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC part of?
Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Jazira a 46% chance of winning, Al Wahda FC a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Jazira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Jazira 0W | Draws 1 | Al Wahda FC 0W.
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC in?
Al-Jazira (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Al Wahda FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Jazira's attack at 1.28x the league average against Al Wahda FC's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Wahda FC's attack (1.15x) against Al-Jazira's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Jazira Win
46%
2.19
23%
4.42
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Al-Jazira xG
Total xG
3.33
1.50
Al Wahda FC xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
5%
19.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Al-Jazira and 1.50 for Al Wahda FC, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Al-Jazira have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 14W 3D 7L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Jazira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Wahda FC's form line: 14W 7D 3L from 24 games, 2.04 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Al Wahda FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Al-Jazira against 2.04 for Al Wahda FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Al-Jazira have posted 2.75 PPG from 12 outings (11W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — Al-Jazira are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Wahda FC have gone 7W 4D 1L from 12 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Jazira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Jazira are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Al Wahda FC are on 1.96 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Wahda FC in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Jazira
Blended
Al Wahda FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC in coming into this match?
Al-Jazira have gone 14W 3D 7L in their last 24 games (1.88 PPG), while Al Wahda FC have gone 14W 7D 3L in their last 24 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Jazira at home or Al Wahda FC away?
Al-Jazira's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Jazira at home: 2.75 PPG; Al Wahda FC away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Al-Jazira or Al Wahda FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Jazira have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al Wahda FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Jazira have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Wahda FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Jazira
3
Draws
6
Al Wahda FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Jazira have won 1, Al Wahda FC have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Al Wahda FC 1-2 Al-Jazira.
Who has won more matches between Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC?
Al Wahda FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Jazira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Al Wahda FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Jazira 50%, Al Wahda FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Jazira and 67% for Al Wahda FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Jazira keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Al Wahda FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Jazira home games / Al Wahda FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Jazira play Al Wahda FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Jazira's games and 67% of Al Wahda FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Jazira vs Al Wahda FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Jazira's matches and 67% of Al Wahda FC's.
Do Al-Jazira and Al Wahda FC tend to score early?
Al-Jazira have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Al Wahda FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Wahda FC defy the odds to beat Al-Jazira 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Wahda FC beat Al-Jazira 1-2 at Mohammed Bin Zayed Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Jazira 1.83 xG and Al Wahda FC 1.50 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Jazira fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Jazira attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against Al Wahda FC attack 1.15 / defence 1.13, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Jazira 46% | Draw 23% | Al Wahda FC 32%, with Al-Jazira to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al Wahda FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Jazira 62%, Al Wahda FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Jazira's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Wahda FC's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Jazira 1.88 PPG, Al Wahda FC 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Wahda FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Jazira (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.