Zorya Luhansk 0-3 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zorya Luhansk (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zorya Luhansk face FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zorya Luhansk host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 31 August 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zorya Luhansk — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zorya Luhansk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Zorya Luhansk have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Zorya Luhansk have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while FC Kharkiv have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zorya Luhansk and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Zorya Luhansk in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 61% versus FC Kharkiv 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zorya Luhansk 54% | FC Kharkiv 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.35 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.080 / defence 0.985 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.973 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.127. Data: 33 Zorya Luhansk games / 33 FC Kharkiv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 40% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 27%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | FC Kharkiv 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Zorya Luhansk 40% | FC Kharkiv 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 40% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.35 / FC Kharkiv 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.080 / def 0.985 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.973 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
1.08
FC Kharkiv xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 10:00 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk 0 - 3 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 40% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Record (7 meetings): Zorya Luhansk 5W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.08) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
40%
2.51
33%
3.01
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.43
1.08
FC Kharkiv xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 1.08 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zorya Luhansk's recent record stands at 14W 10D 9L from 33 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 7L across 33 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zorya Luhansk on 1.58 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zorya Luhansk have managed 7W 5D 4L from 16 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 6W 7D 3L across 16 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.15 scored and 0.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zorya Luhansk have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Early Season
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 14W 10D 9L in their last 33 games (1.58 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 14W 12D 7L in their last 33 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Zorya Luhansk's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Zorya Luhansk won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zorya Luhansk's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Zorya Luhansk
1
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Zorya Luhansk 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 50%, FC Kharkiv 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Zorya Luhansk) and 31% (FC Kharkiv).
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 38%; FC Kharkiv in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 50% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 31% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Zorya Luhansk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Kharkiv run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Zorya Luhansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Kharkiv beat Zorya Luhansk 0-3 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.35 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.08 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.97 / defence 1.08, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 40% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 27%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual FC Kharkiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 54%, FC Kharkiv 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.58 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.