Zorya Luhansk 1-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zorya Luhansk at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zorya Luhansk host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zorya Luhansk — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing away from home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour FC Kharkiv — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Zorya Luhansk have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while FC Kharkiv have managed just 1 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2025, ended 3–1 with Zorya Luhansk winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Zorya Luhansk and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Zorya Luhansk in-play and half-time data (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zorya Luhansk 55% versus FC Kharkiv 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zorya Luhansk 52% | FC Kharkiv 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zorya Luhansk 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.100 / defence 0.800 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.915 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.210. Data: 56 Zorya Luhansk games / 26 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 40% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 27%. Fair-value odds: Zorya Luhansk 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | FC Kharkiv 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Zorya Luhansk dominate the H2H record, yet FC Kharkiv are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Kharkiv (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Zorya Luhansk 40% | FC Kharkiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zorya Luhansk 40% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Zorya Luhansk 1.12 / FC Kharkiv 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Zorya Luhansk attack 1.100 / def 0.800 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.915 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Zorya Luhansk xG
Expected Goals
0.89
FC Kharkiv xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What was the final score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk 1 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho.
What competition is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Zorya Luhansk a 40% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Record (6 meetings): Zorya Luhansk 5W | Draws 0 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv in?
Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zorya Luhansk's attack rating (1.10) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Zorya Luhansk's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
40%
2.53
33%
3.03
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Zorya Luhansk xG
Total xG
2.00
0.89
FC Kharkiv xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
16%
6.14
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Zorya Luhansk and 0.89 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zorya Luhansk's recent record stands at 11W 9D 9L from 29 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 5L across 29 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zorya Luhansk on 1.45 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 1.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zorya Luhansk have managed 6W 5D 4L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 6W 7D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.17 scored and 0.55 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Zorya Luhansk have gone 11W 9D 9L in their last 29 games (1.45 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 14W 10D 5L in their last 29 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zorya Luhansk at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zorya Luhansk at home: 1.53 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Zorya Luhansk or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zorya Luhansk have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Oct 2021, when Zorya Luhansk won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zorya Luhansk's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Zorya Luhansk
1
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Zorya Luhansk have won 5, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Zorya Luhansk 0-3 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zorya Luhansk 40%, FC Kharkiv 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Zorya Luhansk and 27% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; FC Kharkiv in 40%; Zorya Luhansk have failed to score in 27% of games; FC Kharkiv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zorya Luhansk home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zorya Luhansk play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Zorya Luhansk's recent matches and 47% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zorya Luhansk vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Zorya Luhansk's recent games and 27% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Zorya Luhansk have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Valerija Lobanovskoho, Regular Season - 27, as Zorya Luhansk and FC Kharkiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zorya Luhansk 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.89 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zorya Luhansk attack 1.10 / defence 0.80 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.92 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zorya Luhansk 40% | Draw 33% | FC Kharkiv 27%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zorya Luhansk 52%, FC Kharkiv 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zorya Luhansk 1.45 PPG, FC Kharkiv 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.