Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Lviv plays host to Shakhtar Donetsk versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in Premier League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 27 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk at Arena Lviv this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Shakhtar Donetsk's favour (2.20 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, Shakhtar Donetsk are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2026, ended 2–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The historical record gives Shakhtar Donetsk a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Shakhtar Donetsk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 38% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 58% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.72 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.084 / defence 0.732 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.125 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.116. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 40 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 53% | Draw 31% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 17%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 5.88. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Shakhtar Donetsk 20% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 53% | Draw 31% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.72 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.084 / def 0.732 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.125 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 February 2027 at Arena Lviv.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 53% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 17% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (3 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 3W | Draws 0 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.08) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack (1.12x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
53%
1.89
31%
3.27
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.64
0.92
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
3%
33.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.92 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 40 games, going 29W 7D 4L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (10W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.33 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 14W 2D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.17 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.15 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 29W 7D 4L in their last 40 games (2.35 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 11D 19L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.32 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Shakhtar Donetsk go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 5-0 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 3 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 3, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 32%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 63% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 42% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 63% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.