Shakhtar Donetsk 4-1 Desna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 70% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NSK Olimpijs'kyj plays host to Shakhtar Donetsk versus Desna in Premier League (matchday 13). Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 5W 0D 1L from their last 6 home games — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.83 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Desna's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Desna have posted 1W 2D 2L from their last 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Shakhtar Donetsk's favour (2.30 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Desna — key trading statistics (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 42% versus Desna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 58% | Desna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.26 xG and Desna 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.668 / defence 0.989 | Desna attack 0.708 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.163. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.668 — their 2.26 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Desna's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output up. Desna's attack rating of 0.708 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.81. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 12 games and Desna's last 12.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 70% | Draw 18% | Desna 12%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.43 | Draw 5.42 | Desna 8.54. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (70%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 70% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shakhtar Donetsk's last 6 home games and Desna's last 5 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 67% (last 6 home games) | Desna 40% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna | Competition: Premier League, matchday 13 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 70% | Draw 18% | Desna 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.26 / Desna 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.668 / def 0.989 | Desna attack 0.708 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Desna xG
50%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna FAQs
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 30 October 2021 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna?
Shakhtar Donetsk 4 - 1 Desna.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna is a Premier League fixture (matchday 13) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 70% chance of winning, Desna a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Desna will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.67) and Desna's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Desna's attack (0.71x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 12 games and Desna's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.42
12%
8.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.08
0.81
Desna xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.42
18%
Draw
8.54
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
10%
9.59
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
1%
81.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Desna expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.81 for Desna, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 12 games, going 9W 2D 1L for 2.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Desna sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Desna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 4W 0D 1L across their last 5 home games, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Desna have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 5 away games (1W 2D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Desna's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.58 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Desna are on 1.17 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Desna
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk (Home) vs Desna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Desna
Blended
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna Form FAQs
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Desna in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 9W 2D 1L in their last 12 games (2.42 PPG), while Desna have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Desna away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.40 PPG; Desna away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Desna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Desna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 1 H2H match between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 30 October 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
Desna
Recent Meetings
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Desna?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 1, Desna have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Desna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2021: Shakhtar Donetsk 4-1 Desna.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Desna?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Desna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 60%, Desna 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 60% for Desna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Desna in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Desna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Desna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shakhtar Donetsk and Desna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 40% of Desna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shakhtar Donetsk and Desna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 60% of Desna's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Desna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 60% of Desna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Desna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Desna 4-1 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.26 xG and Desna 0.81 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.67 / defence 0.99 against Desna attack 0.71 / defence 1.25, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 70% | Draw 18% | Desna 12%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 70%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 58%, Desna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Desna's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 3.00 average — above their attacking norm. Desna (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.