Inhulets 0-0 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Zirka plays host to Inhulets versus Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Inhulets have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Inhulets have posted 1W 1D 2L at Stadion Zirka — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 4L across 6 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Veres Rivne arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Inhulets goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 46% versus Veres Rivne 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Inhulets 54% | Veres Rivne 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 1.19 xG and Veres Rivne 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.868 / defence 1.310 | Veres Rivne attack 0.864 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.166. Veres Rivne bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Inhulets's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Inhulets games / 12 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 33% | Draw 28% | Veres Rivne 39%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Veres Rivne 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Inhulets 50% | Veres Rivne 33%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Zirka • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 33% | Draw 28% | Veres Rivne 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Inhulets 1.19 / Veres Rivne 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.868 / def 1.310 | Veres Rivne attack 0.864 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Veres Rivne xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Inhulets vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stadion Zirka.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Inhulets 0 - 0 Veres Rivne.
Where is Inhulets vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zirka.
What competition is Inhulets vs Veres Rivne part of?
Inhulets vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 33% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Inhulets and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Veres Rivne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Inhulets and Veres Rivne in?
Inhulets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Veres Rivne (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.87x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Veres Rivne's attack (0.86x) against Inhulets's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 11/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.58
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Inhulets xG
Total xG
2.50
1.32
Veres Rivne xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
9%
11.39
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.8 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Inhulets and 1.32 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Inhulets come into this having played 11 games, going 2W 2D 7L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.55 PPG from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Inhulets's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inhulets are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.09 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Veres Rivne in 27%.
Defensively: Veres Rivne in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 5W 2D 4L in their last 11 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Veres Rivne away?
Veres Rivne's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Inhulets
3
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Veres Rivne?
From 5 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Inhulets 0-0 Veres Rivne.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Inhulets 50%, Veres Rivne 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Inhulets) and 50% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Inhulets's recent matches and 25% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Inhulets's recent games and 50% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Inhulets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inhulets and Veres Rivne finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Zirka, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 1.19 xG and Veres Rivne 1.32 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Inhulets fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.87 / defence 1.31 against Veres Rivne attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 11/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 33% | Draw 28% | Veres Rivne 39%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 54%, Veres Rivne 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Veres Rivne arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Inhulets (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.