Polessya 1-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Polessya face Vorskla Poltava.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vorskla Poltava travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on Polessya in Premier League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Monday 29 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Polessya — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Polessya at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Polessya are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Vorskla Poltava have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Vorskla Poltava's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Polessya 0.90 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Polessya, 0 for Vorskla Poltava and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Polessya 3–0 Vorskla Poltava — a Polessya win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 42% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 48% versus Vorskla Poltava 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 44% | Vorskla Poltava 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 0.84 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 0.861 / defence 1.224 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.804 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.123 / away 1.246. Polessya's defence rating of 1.224 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vorskla Poltava's projected output up. Data: built from Polessya's last 25 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 55.
Result probabilities: Polessya 24% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 44%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 4.18 | Draw 3.11 | Vorskla Poltava 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 66% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Polessya's last 10 home games and Vorskla Poltava's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Polessya 80% (last 10 home games) | Vorskla Poltava 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, matchday 26 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 29 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 24% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Polessya 0.84 / Vorskla Poltava 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 0.861 / def 1.224 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.804 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.123 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Vorskla Poltava xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava FAQs
What time does Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 29 April 2024 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava?
Polessya 1 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava is a Premier League fixture (matchday 26) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 24% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Polessya and Vorskla Poltava will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Polessya's attack at 0.86x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 25 games and Vorskla Poltava's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
24%
4.18
32%
3.11
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.06
1.23
Vorskla Poltava xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.6 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Polessya and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Polessya and 1.23 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Polessya have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 11W 6D 8L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Vorskla Poltava's form line: 8W 6D 11L from 25 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Polessya on 1.56 PPG, Vorskla Poltava on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Polessya have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 12 home games (5W 3D 4L).
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 3D 4L from their last 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 0.92 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
Polessya (Home) vs Vorskla Poltava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 11W 6D 8L in their last 25 games (1.56 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Polessya's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.50 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Polessya or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Oct 2023, when Polessya won Vorskla Poltava 0-3 Polessya.
Polessya's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Polessya
0
Draws
0
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Vorskla Poltava?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 4, Vorskla Poltava have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2025: Vorskla Poltava 0-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Vorskla Poltava?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 67%, Vorskla Poltava 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Polessya) and 33% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava in 33%; Vorskla Poltava in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs Vorskla Poltava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and Vorskla Poltava matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Polessya's recent matches and 42% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Polessya and Vorskla Poltava matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Polessya's recent games and 33% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Polessya defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 0.84 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.23 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.80 / defence 0.86, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 24% | Draw 32% | Vorskla Poltava 44%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Polessya win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 44%, Vorskla Poltava 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Polessya 1.56 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.