Kryvbas KR 3-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs FC Kharkiv encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

FC Kharkiv travel to Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva to take on Kryvbas KR in Premier League (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Kryvbas KR — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Kryvbas KR's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Kharkiv stand at 0W 4D 6L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

FC Kharkiv's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, Kryvbas KR have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Kryvbas KR have won 2, FC Kharkiv 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Kryvbas KR 3–1 FC Kharkiv — a Kryvbas KR win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 40% versus FC Kharkiv 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 42% | FC Kharkiv 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kryvbas KR surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while FC Kharkiv have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.59 xG and FC Kharkiv 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.078 / defence 0.863 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.882 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.260. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 1.336 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kryvbas KR's projected output up. Data: built from Kryvbas KR's last 55 games and FC Kharkiv's last 55.

Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 51% | Draw 27% | FC Kharkiv 22%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.96 | Draw 3.64 | FC Kharkiv 4.64. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Kryvbas KR are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kryvbas KR 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Kharkiv 60% (last 10 away games).

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