Oleksandria 4-0 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Oleksandria welcome Obolon'-Brovar to CSC Nika. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Oleksandria have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Oleksandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oleksandria at CSC Nika this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at CSC Nika. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Oleksandria are significantly better at CSC Nika than their overall form suggests.
Obolon'-Brovar — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Oleksandria have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Oleksandria, 0 for Obolon'-Brovar and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Oleksandria trading profile (50 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (50 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Oleksandria 40% | Obolon'-Brovar 30%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 48% | Obolon'-Brovar 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.54 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.185 / defence 0.877 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.965 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 0.907. Data: 50 Oleksandria games / 50 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 56% | Draw 26% | Obolon'-Brovar 19%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Obolon'-Brovar 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Oleksandria (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Mar 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 56% | Draw 26% | Obolon'-Brovar 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 42% | xG Oleksandria 1.54 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.185 / def 0.877 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.965 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.197 / away 0.907 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Obolon'-Brovar xG
42%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 11:00 on Tuesday 11 March 2025 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Oleksandria 4 - 0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 56% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (3 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 2 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 1.19x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.90
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.31
0.77
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
26%
3.86
4%
25.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Oleksandria and 0.77 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Oleksandria's recent record stands at 21W 15D 14L from 50 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Oleksandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Obolon'-Brovar, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 23L across 50 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Oleksandria by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Obolon'-Brovar heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Oleksandria have managed 13W 7D 6L from 26 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record stands at 4W 8D 14L across 26 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.60 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 30%.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 21W 15D 14L in their last 50 games (1.56 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 10W 17D 23L in their last 50 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.77 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Mar 2025, when Oleksandria won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Oleksandria's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 5 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Obolon'-Brovar?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 42%, Obolon'-Brovar 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Oleksandria) and 38% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 35% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Oleksandria's recent games and 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Obolon'-Brovar 4-0 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.54 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.77 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.19 / defence 0.88 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.96 / defence 1.09, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 56% | Draw 26% | Obolon'-Brovar 19%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, Obolon'-Brovar 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (50 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (50 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.