FC Kharkiv 3-3 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv and Polessya meet at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
FC Kharkiv (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Kharkiv's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Polessya's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Polessya's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Polessya are 0.60 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv over their recent games (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for FC Kharkiv, 1 for Polessya and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended FC Kharkiv 1–2 Polessya — a Polessya win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Polessya half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 61% versus Polessya 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 54% | Polessya 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Kharkiv surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Polessya have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.36 xG and Polessya 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.106 / defence 1.368 | Polessya attack 0.910 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.190. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 1.368 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Polessya's projected output up. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 58 games and Polessya's last 28.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 35% | Draw 25% | Polessya 40%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.87 | Draw 4.00 | Polessya 2.49. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Polessya are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Polessya if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 80% (last 10 home games) | Polessya 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 35% | Draw 25% | Polessya 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG FC Kharkiv 1.36 / Polessya 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.106 / def 1.368 | Polessya attack 0.910 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Polessya (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Polessya xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Polessya FAQs
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Polessya kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Polessya kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
FC Kharkiv 3 - 3 Polessya.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Polessya part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Polessya is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 35% chance of winning, Polessya a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Polessya will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Kharkiv vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC Kharkiv's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (0.91x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from FC Kharkiv's last 58 games and Polessya's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
35%
2.87
25%
4.00
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.85
1.48
Polessya xG
2.87
35%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
8%
12.62
10%
9.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Polessya Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.48 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, FC Kharkiv have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 5W 7D 16L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Polessya's form line: 13W 7D 8L from 28 games, 1.64 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Polessya are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Kharkiv.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC Kharkiv have posted 1.23 PPG from their last 13 home games (4W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 0.79 PPG overall — FC Kharkiv are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Polessya have gone 6W 3D 4L from their last 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.21 scored and 0.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Kharkiv have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Polessya in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Current Season
Polessya
Current Season
FC Kharkiv (Home) vs Polessya (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Kharkiv
Current Season
Polessya
Current Season
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Polessya Form FAQs
What form are FC Kharkiv and Polessya in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 5W 7D 16L in their last 28 games (0.79 PPG), while Polessya have gone 13W 7D 8L in their last 28 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.23 PPG; Polessya away: 1.62 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Polessya in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between FC Kharkiv and Polessya, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 10 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Polessya have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Kharkiv have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Polessya — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Polessya H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Polessya?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Polessya have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Polessya last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 August 2026: Polessya 3-1 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 77%, Polessya 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Kharkiv) and 46% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Polessya in 46%; Polessya in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Kharkiv vs Polessya Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Kharkiv and Polessya matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 77% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 31% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC Kharkiv and Polessya matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 46% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Polessya matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 62% of Polessya's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Kharkiv and Polessya share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 29, as FC Kharkiv and Polessya drew 3-3 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.36 xG and Polessya 1.48 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. FC Kharkiv beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Polessya outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.11 / defence 1.37 against Polessya attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 35% | Draw 25% | Polessya 40%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 54%, Polessya 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Polessya's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.