Vorskla Poltava 3-1 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vorskla Poltava at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 29 as Vorskla Poltava welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Vorskla Poltava have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Vorskla Poltava's home record at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Vorskla Poltava at 0.70 PPG versus Obolon'-Brovar's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, Obolon'-Brovar 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vorskla Poltava 54% versus Obolon'-Brovar 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Vorskla Poltava 50% | Obolon'-Brovar 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vorskla Poltava 1.25 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.891 / defence 1.404 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.661 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.190. Data: 58 Vorskla Poltava games / 28 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 39% | Draw 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 33%. Fair-value odds: Vorskla Poltava 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Obolon'-Brovar 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Vorskla Poltava 60% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vorskla Poltava 39% | Draw 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Vorskla Poltava 1.25 / Obolon'-Brovar 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Vorskla Poltava attack 0.891 / def 1.404 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.661 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.240 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Vorskla Poltava xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Obolon'-Brovar xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What was the final score in Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Vorskla Poltava 3 - 1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho.
What competition is Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Vorskla Poltava a 39% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (1 meetings): Vorskla Poltava 1W | Draws 0 | Obolon'-Brovar 0W.
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Vorskla Poltava's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Vorskla Poltava's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
39%
2.53
28%
3.58
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Vorskla Poltava xG
Total xG
2.35
1.10
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Vorskla Poltava and 1.10 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vorskla Poltava come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 6D 14L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 0.93 PPG from 28 outings (5W 11D 12L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vorskla Poltava on 1.07 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Vorskla Poltava's home form reads 3W 3D 8L across 14 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 0.79 points per game from 14 outings (2W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Vorskla Poltava are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.61 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 29%.
Defensively: Obolon'-Brovar in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vorskla Poltava
Current Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Vorskla Poltava have gone 8W 6D 14L in their last 28 games (1.07 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 5W 11D 12L in their last 28 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vorskla Poltava at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Vorskla Poltava's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vorskla Poltava at home: 0.86 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Vorskla Poltava or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vorskla Poltava have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vorskla Poltava's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Vorskla Poltava
0
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 4 meetings on record, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vorskla Poltava 64%, Obolon'-Brovar 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Vorskla Poltava) and 36% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: Vorskla Poltava have failed to score in 29% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vorskla Poltava home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vorskla Poltava play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Vorskla Poltava's recent matches and 29% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vorskla Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Vorskla Poltava's recent games and 36% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vorskla Poltava and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Vorskla Poltava have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vorskla Poltava cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Obolon'-Brovar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Obolon'-Brovar 3-1 at Stadion Vorskla im. Oleksiya Butovskoho, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vorskla Poltava 1.25 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.10 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vorskla Poltava attack 0.89 / defence 1.40 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.66 / defence 1.13, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vorskla Poltava 39% | Draw 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 33%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vorskla Poltava 50%, Obolon'-Brovar 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vorskla Poltava 1.07 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vorskla Poltava win broke the near-deadlock. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.